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CBTCabot CorporationSell5.7·$74.91
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Cabot Corporation has built a credible earnings track record with four consecutive beats and exceptional free cash flow conversion, but the stock has already traded through its near-term resistance target with revenues in structural decline — the setup favors patience over fresh commitment at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Decline Structural Headwind→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Golden Cross→Stable
  • Price Above Near Term Target↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Cabot Corporation (CBT) Stock Analysis

Sector Rotation edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. At $74.91, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Cabot Corporation manufactures specialty chemicals and performance materials across two segments—Reinforcement Materials (carbon black for tires and industrial products) and Performance Chemicals (specialty carbons, battery materials, fumed metal oxides, inkjet colorants)—with... Read more

$74.91+4.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#21 of 44 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.68%
IncomeYield2.44%(5y avg 2.07%)Payout51.05%sustainable
Stop $72.27Target $78.59(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$90.33+20.6%6 analysts
$78.59our TP
$74.91price
$90.33mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $74.91, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.0
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.82
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.51%=HEAVYNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.50Resistance $80.82

Price Targets

$72
$79
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.51%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $74.91, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $72.27. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CBT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $78.59 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $72.27. Stop-loss: $72.27.

What are the risks of investing in CBT?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is CBT overvalued or undervalued?

Cabot Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CBT?

11 analysts cover CBT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Cabot Corporation do?Cabot Corporation manufactures specialty chemicals and performance materials across two segments—Reinforcement...

Cabot Corporation manufactures specialty chemicals and performance materials across two segments—Reinforcement Materials (carbon black for tires and industrial products) and Performance Chemicals (specialty carbons, battery materials, fumed metal oxides, inkjet colorants)—with plants in the U.S. and over 20 other countries. Sales in China constituted approximately 25% of fiscal 2025 revenues; the company employed approximately 4,100 people globally at September 30, 2025.

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