Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸Attractively valued
MATV · Why this verdict
Why Mativ Holdings (MATV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mativ is an attractively valued specialty chemicals company (forward P/E 9.3x) with a perfect four-quarter beat streak, excellent cash conversion and 53.9% upside to the analyst target, but it carries leverage (debt-to-equity 2.2) and negative momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of 93%, including EPS of $0.50 versus a $0.28 estimate in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS meets or beats estimates in the November 4 report and the following quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats against very low estimates (for example $0.06 versus $0.02) may reflect easy comparisons rather than operating strength. | ||
The stock is attractively valued at a 9.3x forward P/E, with a stated margin of safety of 61%. Bull case | Valuation stays below about 12x forward earnings as results are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on a leveraged company with no competitive moat and weak growth (revenue growth score 2.8) may be a value trap. | ||
Leverage is a material weakness, with debt-to-equity of 2.2 triggering a 1.5-point leverage penalty on the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines below 1.5 through debt paydown over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow is more than twice net income, which gives the company capacity to service and reduce its debt. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow at 204% of net income, giving the quality side a score of 10.0 on FCF quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow exceeding earnings can reflect working-capital release or low reported profit rather than durable cash generation. | ||
Momentum of 3.2 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 1.33 showing bearish positioning. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum recovers above 4.5 before the 53.9% upside to the analyst target can be acted on. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average and RSI is 38, which the engine reads as an uptrend pullback and a buy opportunity. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of 93%, including EPS of $0.50 versus a $0.28 estimate in August 2026.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the November 4 report and the following quarter.
CounterBeats against very low estimates (for example $0.06 versus $0.02) may reflect easy comparisons rather than operating strength.
The stock is attractively valued at a 9.3x forward P/E, with a stated margin of safety of 61%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Valuation stays below about 12x forward earnings as results are delivered over 12 months.
CounterA low multiple on a leveraged company with no competitive moat and weak growth (revenue growth score 2.8) may be a value trap.
Leverage is a material weakness, with debt-to-equity of 2.2 triggering a 1.5-point leverage penalty on the overall score.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines below 1.5 through debt paydown over 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is more than twice net income, which gives the company capacity to service and reduce its debt.
Cash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow at 204% of net income, giving the quality side a score of 10.0 on FCF quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income through the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow exceeding earnings can reflect working-capital release or low reported profit rather than durable cash generation.
Momentum of 3.2 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume and a put/call ratio of 1.33 showing bearish positioning.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 before the 53.9% upside to the analyst target can be acted on.
CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average and RSI is 38, which the engine reads as an uptrend pullback and a buy opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 204% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 87%
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.84
Upside
+59.1%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.2
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.84 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Technical at 8.0, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Peer rank at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Margin Of Safety
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from current 9.3x.
- P3Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 1.5 from current 2.2.
- P4Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income conversion falls below 100% from current 204%.
- P5Negative Momentum Bearish Options
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.2.