Value
3.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
LITE · Why this verdict
Why Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 8.7 |
| Net margin | 8.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 90% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $38,859,209 (0.058% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.64
- ▸High IV: 108%
- ▸Above max pain $430
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.65
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.48>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Value at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.