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FIGFigma, Inc.Sell5.6·$20.85
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

With 46% revenue growth and a Rule of 40 score of 116, the underlying business quality is exceptional, but a deteriorating price trend, 37% short interest, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.9 argue against new exposure until momentum stabilizes and the technical picture clears.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Fcf Despite Gaap Losses→Stable
  • Revenue Hypergrowth Trajectory→Stable
  • Leverage And Negative Sentiment→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Figma, Inc. (FIG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Figma provides a browser-based design and product development platform where teams collaborate to build digital products, spanning ideation (FigJam), design (Figma Design), prototyping (Figma Make), and developer handoff (Dev Mode). Revenue comes from per-seat annual and monthly... Read more

$20.85+28.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#84 of 118 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.62%
Stop $20.18Target $26.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$30.80+47.7%10 analysts
$26.80our TP
$20.85price
$30.80mean
$37

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Figma, Inc.

About Figma, Inc.

Figma's browser-based platform served users whose final products reach billions of people worldwide in 2025, with non-designers — including product managers, developers, and marketers — comprising approximately two-thirds of monthly active users in Q4 2025. Since launching Figma Design in 2015, the company has expanded to nine products covering ideation, design, code handoff, and publishing. Figma received FedRAMP authorization in early 2025, opening the U.S. federal government as an addressable customer segment.

Figma monetizes through per-seat annual and monthly subscriptions across four plan tiers — Starter (free), Professional, Organization, and Enterprise — with seat types ranging from a free Viewer seat to a Full seat covering every product. The company deploys a product-led growth motion, with a free tier driving organic adoption that converts into paid seats; a direct sales team manages enterprise accounts to expand seat counts and upgrade plan tiers. Integrations with Atlassian, Zoom, Notion, and Linear, alongside the Figma app in ChatGPT and Claude, extend platform reach into existing customer workflows. In 2025, Figma acquired Payload CMS and Weavy Inc. to add developer-grade CMS and AI media generation capabilities. The company currently relies on off-the-shelf foundational AI models, with proprietary model development expected to accelerate over time as investments in AI continue.

Show full overview

Figma's multi-class stock structure concentrates voting control with Dylan Field, the Chair, CEO, and President — a governance structure the 10-K flags directly as limiting investor influence over important transactions including a change of control. Competition from AI coding and design tools may adversely affect platform adoption if Figma fails to keep pace with rapid AI model improvement, which the 10-K names as a top business risk. The platform's per-seat subscription pricing faces model risk as well: the 10-K discloses that introducing billing structures beyond per-seat could affect business results.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Figma, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)61.0
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA-6.3
Profit Mgn-123.1%
ROE-108.6%
Rev Growth48.2%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.37bearish
IV69%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-15Item 5.02LOW
    Director Mike Krieger resigned from Figma's Board of Directors effective April 14, 2026. No disagreement with the company's operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.4
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.80Resistance $30.92

Price Targets

$20
$27
A.Upside+28.5%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $20.18. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FIG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.80 (+28.5% upside). Prior stop was $20.18. Stop-loss: $20.18.

What are the risks of investing in FIG?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is FIG overvalued or undervalued?

Figma, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 61.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FIG?

18 analysts cover FIG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Figma, Inc. do?Figma provides a browser-based design and product development platform where teams collaborate to build digital...

Figma provides a browser-based design and product development platform where teams collaborate to build digital products, spanning ideation (FigJam), design (Figma Design), prototyping (Figma Make), and developer handoff (Dev Mode). Revenue comes from per-seat annual and monthly subscriptions across four plans serving freelancers to Fortune 500 enterprises. Non-designers comprised approximately two-thirds of monthly active users in Q4 2025.

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