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Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $53.75: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for search, observability, and security use cases. FY2025 revenue was $1.483B (93% subscription) from ~21,500 customers; Elastic Cloud represented 46% of total... Read more

$53.75+31.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#40 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.94%
Stop $49.96Target $70.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$78.59+46.2%26 analysts
$70.73our TP
$53.75price
$78.59mean
$116

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $53.75: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(8), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Elastic N.V.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA-298.7
Profit Mgn-5.0%
ROE-10.2%
Rev Growth17.7%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV90%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerchannel partner12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One customer, a channel partner, accounted for 12% of total revenue for the year ended April 30, 2025 and 11% of total revenue for the year ended April 30, 2024.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
52w Position
1.2
Support Resistance
2.2
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.6
Growth Rank
5.6
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.0>=5.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.31Resistance $56.30

Price Targets

$50
$71
A.Upside+31.6%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts36
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$79

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $53.75: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $49.96. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $70.73 (+31.7% upside). Prior stop was $49.96. Stop-loss: $49.96.

What are the risks of investing in ESTC?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued?

Elastic N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ESTC?

36 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Elastic N.V. do?Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for...

Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for search, observability, and security use cases. FY2025 revenue was $1.483B (93% subscription) from ~21,500 customers; Elastic Cloud represented 46% of total revenue.

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