Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ESTC stock price target?

Take-profit $70.73 (+52.8% upside). Target $70.73 (+52.8%), stop $43.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.3:1.

Q: Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued?

Elastic N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about ESTC?

34 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $79.

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Elastic N.V. is a software company offering Elasticsearch-based Search AI solutions — Elastic Observability and Elastic Security — available as cloud service or self-managed software to ~21,500 customers. Total revenue was $1.483B for fiscal year ended April 30, 2025 (17%... Read more

$46.29+52.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#41 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $43.05Target $70.73(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.3:1

Analyst target$78.59+69.8%26 analysts

$70.73our TP

$46.29price

$78.59mean

$116

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 53%

Risks

Negative momentum

Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)16.7

Mkt Cap$4.9B

EV/EBITDA-257.8

Profit Mgn-5.0%

ROE-10.2%

Rev Growth17.7%

Beta1.03

DividendNone

Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish

IV73%elevated

Max Pain$135+191.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMProductElastic Cloud46%
10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended April 30, 2025, 2024, and 2023, Elastic Cloud contributed 46%, 43%, and 40% of our total revenue, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.615%1.29

Quality4.615%0.69

Growth6.915%1.03

Momentum3.210%0.32

Sentiment7.410%0.74

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup4.55%0.23

Risk Profile6.05%0.30

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)5.72

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.0

Macd

10.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

1.9

Growth Rank

5.6

Value Rank

6.8

GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

60 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.05Resistance $51.91

Price Targets

$43

$71

A.Upside+52.8%

A.R:R5.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-28 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ESTC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $70.73 (+52.8%), stop $43.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $70.73 (+52.8% upside). Target $70.73 (+52.8%), stop $43.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R 5.3:1. Stop-loss: $43.05.

What are the risks of investing in ESTC?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.04% of cap).

Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued?

Elastic N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ESTC?

34 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $79.

What does Elastic N.V. do?Elastic N.V. is a software company offering Elasticsearch-based Search AI solutions — Elastic Observability and Elastic...