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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth.

Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads with fresh ingredients. Revenue comes entirely from company-owned restaurant sales; digital sales were 36.7% of food/beverage revenue in 2025 with... Read more

$34.70+21.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#8 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $30.97Target $40.16(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$43.66+25.8%35 analysts
$40.16our TP
$34.70price
$43.66mean
$52

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 22%
Recent Earnings detected in news
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.3
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$42.4B
EV/EBITDA19.7
Profit Mgn12.9%
ROE47.4%
Rev Growth4.9%
Beta1.06
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV114%elevated
Max Pain$20-42.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.8
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.82Resistance $37.08

Price Targets

$31
$40
A.Upside+15.7%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts44
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$44

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.97. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.16 (+21.7% upside). Prior stop was $30.97. Stop-loss: $30.97.

What are the risks of investing in CMG?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMG?

44 analysts cover CMG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. do?Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos,...

Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads with fresh ingredients. Revenue comes entirely from company-owned restaurant sales; digital sales were 36.7% of food/beverage revenue in 2025 with 130,301 employees worldwide.

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