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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international fast-casual restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads using fresh ingredients without artificial preservatives. All revenue is derived from company-owned restaurant food and beverage sales,... Read more

$33.60+18.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#11 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.51%
Stop $31.36Target $39.91(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$43.38+29.1%34 analysts
$39.91our TP
$33.60price
$43.38mean
$52

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-1.00)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.0
P/E (Fwd)24.9
Mkt Cap$43.3B
EV/EBITDA20.7
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE49.2%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.03
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$20-40.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.5
Bollinger
3.4
Support Resistance
5.2
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.63Resistance $35.76

Price Targets

$31
$40
A.Upside+18.8%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts44
Consensus3.9/5
Avg Target$43

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $33.60: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $31.36. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the CMG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.91 (+18.8% upside). Prior stop was $31.36. Stop-loss: $31.36.

What are the risks of investing in CMG?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-1.00).

Is CMG overvalued or undervalued?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.0 (forward 24.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMG?

44 analysts cover CMG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. do?Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international fast-casual restaurants serving burritos,...

Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 3,938 U.S. and 104 international fast-casual restaurants serving burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads using fresh ingredients without artificial preservatives. All revenue is derived from company-owned restaurant food and beverage sales, with digital orders representing 36.7% of food and beverage revenue in 2025.

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