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JMKEJersey Mike's Subs Inc.Sell5.4·$16.57
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

JMKE is a high-quality restaurant franchisor (quality 7.1, Piotroski 9/9) with 51.4% analyst-target upside, but collapsing momentum and heavy insider share disposals mean the engine says avoid for now.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Restaurant Franchise→Stable
  • Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry→Stable
  • Capitulation Momentum Failure→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. (JMKE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants specializing in authentic, hand-crafted, and craveable subs. The company also offers catering services, as well as provides mobile app, online ordering, and third-party... Read more

$16.57+50.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 31 Restaurants
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $15.81Target $24.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$27.69+67.1%23 analysts
$24.92our TP
$16.57price
$27.69mean
$40

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-04

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 50%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA17.5
Profit Mgn-0.1%
ROE—
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Rsi
3.0
Ma Position
3.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 5, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5INSIDER 39.24%=EXTREMEA.R:R 4.3 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
5 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $16.30Resistance $23.79

Price Targets

$16
$25
A.Upside+50.4%
A.R:R4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 39.24%=extreme

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for JMKE.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JMKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.81. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JMKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.92 (+50.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.81. Stop-loss: $15.81.

What are the risks of investing in JMKE?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is JMKE overvalued or undervalued?

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JMKE?

31 analysts cover JMKE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. do?Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants...

Jersey Mike's Subs Inc. engages in franchising and operating fast casual, submarine-style sandwich restaurants specializing in authentic, hand-crafted, and craveable subs. The company also offers catering services, as well as provides mobile app, online ordering, and third-party delivery. It operates stores in the United States and Canada, as well as franchise agreements in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · WING (Wingstop Inc.) · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · LOCO (El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.)
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