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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.94: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 66%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Below-average business quality.

Dutch Bros is a drive-thru beverage shop operator and franchisor with 1,136 shops across 25 US states as of December 31, 2025 (811 company-operated, 325 franchised). Revenue comes from company-operated shop sales and franchise fees; 72% of 2025 transactions involved Dutch... Read more

$57.94+18.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#3 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $53.86Target $68.36(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$75.96+31.1%24 analysts
$68.36our TP
$57.94price
$75.96mean
$95

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.94: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 66%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.0Qual3.5Grw9.8Mom4.9Sent7.9Ins5.0Peer4.6Tech2.2Risk1.95.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)86.5
P/E (Fwd)46.0
Mkt Cap$9.1B
EV/EBITDA28.4
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth29.4%
Beta2.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.92bearish
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$35-39.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicWestern United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our shops are geographically concentrated in the Western United States, and we could be negatively affected by conditions specific to that region'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Short Interest
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Put Call
0.5
Volatility
0.7
Beta
1.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Debt Equity
4.6
Days To Cover
5.1
High short interest: 66%Elevated put/call: 1.92High IV: 84%Above max pain $35

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
0.9
52w Position
4.9

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.2
Net Margin
2.4
Roa
2.6
Operating Margin
3.3
Roe
4.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -3% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.52Resistance $58.64

Price Targets

$54
$68
A.Upside+18.0%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BROS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $57.94: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 66%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.92; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $53.86. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BROS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.36 (+18.0% upside). Prior stop was $53.86. Stop-loss: $53.86.

What are the risks of investing in BROS?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is BROS overvalued or undervalued?

Dutch Bros Inc. trades at a P/E of 86.5 (forward 46.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BROS?

30 analysts cover BROS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Dutch Bros Inc. do?Dutch Bros is a drive-thru beverage shop operator and franchisor with 1,136 shops across 25 US states as of December...

Dutch Bros is a drive-thru beverage shop operator and franchisor with 1,136 shops across 25 US states as of December 31, 2025 (811 company-operated, 325 franchised). Revenue comes from company-operated shop sales and franchise fees; 72% of 2025 transactions involved Dutch Rewards loyalty members.

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