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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

Dutch Bros operates 1,136 drive-thru coffee and beverage shops across 25 US states (811 company-operated, 325 franchise) as of December 31, 2025, with ~72% of transactions through its Dutch Rewards loyalty program. Revenue comes from beverage sales across coffee (~50%), energy... Read more

$52.78+30.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield0.43%
Stop $49.05Target $68.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$76.58+45.1%24 analysts
$68.92our TP
$52.78price
$76.58mean
$95

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Dutch Bros Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)82.4
P/E (Fwd)42.4
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA27.9
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth30.8%
Beta2.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.44bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$35-33.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicWestern United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our shops are geographically concentrated in the Western United States, and we could be negatively affected by conditions specific to that region'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Beta
2.0
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
3.8
Implied Vol
3.8
Debt Equity
4.5
Days To Cover
6.1
High short interest: 45%Above max pain $35

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.1
Net Margin
2.3
Roa
2.5
Operating Margin
3.1
Fcf Quality
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Roe
4.6
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.32Resistance $59.74

Price Targets

$49
$69
A.Upside+30.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BROS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $52.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 45%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.44; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $49.05. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BROS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.92 (+30.7% upside). Prior stop was $49.05. Stop-loss: $49.05.

What are the risks of investing in BROS?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is BROS overvalued or undervalued?

Dutch Bros Inc. trades at a P/E of 82.4 (forward 42.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BROS?

31 analysts cover BROS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $77.

What does Dutch Bros Inc. do?Dutch Bros operates 1,136 drive-thru coffee and beverage shops across 25 US states (811 company-operated, 325...

Dutch Bros operates 1,136 drive-thru coffee and beverage shops across 25 US states (811 company-operated, 325 franchise) as of December 31, 2025, with ~72% of transactions through its Dutch Rewards loyalty program. Revenue comes from beverage sales across coffee (~50%), energy drinks (~25%), and refreshments (~25%). Shops are currently geographically concentrated in the Western US with active eastward expansion underway.

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