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Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.31: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's operating in 49 U.S. states and 27 other countries. In fiscal 2025, Company-owned Chili's averaged $4.5M in net sales per restaurant at ~$21.90 per guest;... Read more

$132.31+27.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.40%
Stop $123.05Target $168.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$186.73+41.1%22 analysts
$168.05our TP
$132.31price
$186.73mean
$210

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.31: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.3Qual5.1Grw3.9Mom3.4Sent7.5Ins5.0Peer5.3Tech6.5Risk2.95.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Brinker International, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (39 sells, 0.05% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$5.9B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE139.2%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta1.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025.'
  • LOWGeographicFlorida12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    George Felix promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer effective February 26, 2026, with annual base salary of $600,000 and 75% target bonus. Previously served as SVP and CMO for Chili's brand since July 2022.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Volatile — 6.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Debt Equity
0.7
Short Interest
1.7
Beta
5.7
Days To Cover
6.3
High short interest justified: 18%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
4.4
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $126.30Resistance $157.89

Price Targets

$123
$168
A.Upside+27.0%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (39 sells, 0.05% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $132.31: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 2.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $123.05. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $168.05 (+27.0% upside). Prior stop was $123.05. Stop-loss: $123.05.

What are the risks of investing in EAT?

Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.6), Material insider selling (39 sells, 0.05% of cap).

Is EAT overvalued or undervalued?

Brinker International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EAT?

28 analysts cover EAT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $187.

What does Brinker International, Inc. do?Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's...

Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's operating in 49 U.S. states and 27 other countries. In fiscal 2025, Company-owned Chili's averaged $4.5M in net sales per restaurant at ~$21.90 per guest; Maggiano's averaged $9.9M per location. The Chili's brand generates the majority of company revenues.

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