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EATBrinker International, Inc.Sell5.5·$149.39+2.22%
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Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $149.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's operating in 49 U.S. states and 27 other countries. In fiscal 2025, Company-owned Chili's averaged $4.5M in net sales per restaurant at ~$21.90 per guest;... Read more

$149.39+11.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#9 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.20%
Stop $138.97Target $166.41(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$184.90+23.8%20 analysts
$166.41our TP
$149.39price
$184.90mean
$210

Sell if holding. At $149.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Brinker International, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:16:35Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE139.2%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$110-26.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025.'
  • LOWGeographicFlorida12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'A high concentration of our Company-owned restaurants are located in Texas, Florida and California comprising 18.9%, 11.8% and 9.2%, respectively, as of June 25, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02LOW
    George Felix promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer effective February 26, 2026, with annual base salary of $600,000 and 75% target bonus. Previously served as SVP and CMO for Chili's brand since July 2022.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.3
Earnings Growth
4.4
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $124.96Resistance $152.32

Price Targets

$139
$166
A.Upside+11.4%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $149.39, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $138.97. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the EAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $166.41 (+11.4% upside). Prior stop was $138.97. Stop-loss: $138.97.

What are the risks of investing in EAT?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.3): -1.5.

Is EAT overvalued or undervalued?

Brinker International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EAT?

27 analysts cover EAT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $185.

What does Brinker International, Inc. do?Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's...

Brinker International owns, operates, and franchises Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, with Chili's operating in 49 U.S. states and 27 other countries. In fiscal 2025, Company-owned Chili's averaged $4.5M in net sales per restaurant at ~$21.90 per guest; Maggiano's averaged $9.9M per location. The Chili's brand generates the majority of company revenues.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International)
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