Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern↓Deteriorating
- Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Restaurant Brands International
Latest news
- NEWS Your Restaurant Pricing Strategy Isn’t Working Anymore. Here’s What Is - QSR Magazine — QSR Magazine neutral
- NEWS Stock Prices Are a Mixed Bag for Major QSR Brands - franchisetimes.com — franchisetimes.com neutral
- NEWS Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Restaurant Brands International — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Are retail-wholesale stocks lagging Restaurant Brands International (QSR) this year? - MSN — MSN neutral
Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $74.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $77.40 (+4.4%), stop $71.33 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $77.40 (+4.4% upside). Target $77.40 (+4.4%), stop $71.33 (−3.9%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $71.33.
Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.
Restaurant Brands International trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover QSR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $86.
What does Restaurant Brands International do?We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual...
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised restaurants.