Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern↓Deteriorating
- Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — Restaurant Brands International
Latest news
- NEWS Your Restaurant Pricing Strategy Isn’t Working Anymore. Here’s What Is - QSR Magazine — QSR Magazine neutral
- NEWS Stock Prices Are a Mixed Bag for Major QSR Brands - franchisetimes.com — franchisetimes.com neutral
- NEWS Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Restaurant Brands International — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Are retail-wholesale stocks lagging Restaurant Brands International (QSR) this year? - MSN — MSN neutral
Generated 2026-09-27T04:32:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $71.64 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.20. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $77.44 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $68.20. Stop-loss: $68.20.
Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.
Restaurant Brands International trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover QSR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $86.
What does Restaurant Brands International do?We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual...
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised restaurants.