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Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.69 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K,... Read more

$75.69+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.77%
IncomeYield3.43%(5y avg 3.40%)Payout80.71%at-risk
Stop $72.59Target $77.30(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$85.89+13.5%27 analysts
$77.30our TP
$75.69price
$85.89mean
$100

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.69 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Restaurant Brands International

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$34.6B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE28.1%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.55
Dividend3.43%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.73bearish
IV28%low

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.84Resistance $81.96

Price Targets

$73
$77
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QSR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.69 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $72.59. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the QSR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $77.30 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $72.59. Stop-loss: $72.59.

What are the risks of investing in QSR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.

Is QSR overvalued or undervalued?

Restaurant Brands International trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QSR?

21 analysts cover QSR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $86.

What does Restaurant Brands International do?We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual...

We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised restaurants.

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