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The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor (CAKE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Flower Child brands, and licenses FRC restaurants internationally. The company's bakery division manufactures and distributes cheesecakes and other... Read more

$59.21+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.32%
IncomeYield2.01%(5y avg 2.55%)Payout32.55%sustainable
Stop $55.18Target $60.09(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$66.76+12.8%17 analysts
$60.09our TP
$59.21price
$66.76mean
$50
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA14.4
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE41.3%
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta1.04
Dividend2.01%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$40-32.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.83Resistance $65.13

Price Targets

$55
$60
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAKE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $60.09 (+1.5%), stop $55.18 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the CAKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $60.09 (+1.3% upside). Target $60.09 (+1.5%), stop $55.18 (−7.3%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $55.18.

What are the risks of investing in CAKE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is CAKE overvalued or undervalued?

The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CAKE?

29 analysts cover CAKE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $67.

What does The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor do?The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North...

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated owns and operates 368 full-service restaurants under The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Flower Child brands, and licenses FRC restaurants internationally. The company's bakery division manufactures and distributes cheesecakes and other baked goods to its own restaurants and external foodservice customers.

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