Skip to main content

The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor (CAKE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: bakery facilities.

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates 368 restaurants across the US and Canada under The Cheesecake Factory (216), North Italia (48), Flower Child (43), and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands. Revenue is generated from restaurant sales; a bakery division supplies desserts... Read more

$62.68+2.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#14 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $58.32Target $64.14(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$64.17+2.4%18 analysts
$64.14our TP
$62.68price
$64.17mean
$50
$76

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: bakery facilities. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: bakery facilities
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta1.01
Dividend1.92%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C47.94bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$38-40.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierbakery facilities
    10-K Item 1A: 'our bakery facilities are the only sources of most of our baked desserts to our restaurants'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.6
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.76Resistance $65.45

Price Targets

$58
$64
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $62.68 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: bakery facilities. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $58.32. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the CAKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.14 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $58.32. Stop-loss: $58.32.

What are the risks of investing in CAKE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: bakery facilities; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.9): -1.5.

Is CAKE overvalued or undervalued?

The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CAKE?

29 analysts cover CAKE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $64.

What does The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor do?Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates 368 restaurants across the US and Canada under The Cheesecake Factory (216),...

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates 368 restaurants across the US and Canada under The Cheesecake Factory (216), North Italia (48), Flower Child (43), and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands. Revenue is generated from restaurant sales; a bakery division supplies desserts to restaurants and third-party customers.

Related stocks: CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) · ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.)