Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 3.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 3.25
- ▸Attractively valued
CF · Why this verdict
Why CF Industries Holdings (CF) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.1 |
| ROA | 7.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 61% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.3 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+25.9%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-5.6%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 4.5 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates up 25.9% (30d)
- ▸Dividend: 183.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.8 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.9x at spot < 1.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.92
Upside
+8.2%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (3.8)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.92.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Quality at 8.0, and Technical at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.92 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.