Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.56
- ▸Attractively valued
BYD · Why this verdict
Why Boyd Gaming (BYD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boyd Gaming screens cheap at a forward P/E near 9.5x, but a confirmed downtrend, a negative free-cash-flow-to-income ratio and thin 8.1% upside to target argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Boyd trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x with a PEG of 0.79, which the data describes as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays under 11x while earnings hold, leaving room for re-rating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap multiples on casino operators often reflect regional gaming saturation and revenue that is already declining about 1%. | ||
Free cash flow is about -30% of net income, a red flag that undermines the reported earnings behind the cheap multiple. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income turns positive and rises above 60% as capital spending normalizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy casino capex can be growth investment, so negative cash conversion may be temporary and not a quality problem. | ||
Price sits below the 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.5% over 30 days, and volume shows distribution. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day average within 12 months and on-balance volume turns up. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe setup is labelled a recovery with MACD improving and RSI 63, so the downtrend could be ending. | ||
Gaming revenues are 64.0% of the total, and revenue is declining about 1%, so earnings depend on one volatile consumer-spending category. Bear case | Revenue growth returns above 2% YoY while gaming share stays near 64%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCasino demand is resilient and earnings have beaten in 3 of the last 4 quarters despite the concentration. | ||
Boyd trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x with a PEG of 0.79, which the data describes as attractively valued.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays under 11x while earnings hold, leaving room for re-rating.
CounterCheap multiples on casino operators often reflect regional gaming saturation and revenue that is already declining about 1%.
Free cash flow is about -30% of net income, a red flag that undermines the reported earnings behind the cheap multiple.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income turns positive and rises above 60% as capital spending normalizes.
CounterHeavy casino capex can be growth investment, so negative cash conversion may be temporary and not a quality problem.
Price sits below the 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.5% over 30 days, and volume shows distribution.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day average within 12 months and on-balance volume turns up.
CounterThe setup is labelled a recovery with MACD improving and RSI 63, so the downtrend could be ending.
Gaming revenues are 64.0% of the total, and revenue is declining about 1%, so earnings depend on one volatile consumer-spending category.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns above 2% YoY while gaming share stays near 64%.
CounterCasino demand is resilient and earnings have beaten in 3 of the last 4 quarters despite the concentration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 1.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -30% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $984 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 2.0 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.70
- ▸Above max pain $55
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+2.1%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Technical at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x while revenue growth stays below 0%.
- P2Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income stays below 0% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day average and its 30-day slope drops below -4%.
- P4Revenue Concentration Gaming
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -3% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.