Skip to main content

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories, operating 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025 with a stated potential of 900 stores. Revenue is driven by store sales and e-commerce (~10.5% of net sales)... Read more

$141.54+39.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.55%
Stop $133.40Target $197.42(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$226.92+60.3%13 analysts
$197.42our TP
$141.54price
$226.92mean
$282

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(9), earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta1.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is also particularly susceptible to economic and other conditions in California, Texas and other states where we have a significant number of stores'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(9)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $137.53Resistance $173.62

Price Targets

$133
$197
A.Upside+39.5%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BOOT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $197.42 (+39.5%), stop $133.40 (−6.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BOOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $197.42 (+39.5% upside). Target $197.42 (+39.5%), stop $133.40 (−6.1%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $133.40.

What are the risks of investing in BOOT?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is BOOT overvalued or undervalued?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BOOT?

23 analysts cover BOOT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $227.

What does Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. do?Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories,...

Boot Barn is the largest US lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories, operating 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025 with a stated potential of 900 stores. Revenue is driven by store sales and e-commerce (~10.5% of net sales) targeting western enthusiasts, agricultural workers, and construction trades. Exclusive brands (Cody James, Shyanne) carry higher margins than third-party brands.

Related stocks: AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) · VSCO (Victorias Secret & Co.) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · LULU (lululemon athletica inc.)