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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $169.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors.

Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025, targeting western enthusiasts and work-wear customers. Revenue comes from retail sales of boots, apparel, and accessories at... Read more

$169.24+22.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 12 Apparel Retail
Stop $156.60Target $206.31(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$237.14+40.1%14 analysts
$206.31our TP
$169.24price
$237.14mean
$282

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $169.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.4
P/E (Fwd)19.6
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn10.1%
ROE18.5%
Rev Growth16.0%
Beta1.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C3.13bearish
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$110-35.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is also particularly susceptible to economic and other conditions in California, Texas and other states where we have a significant number of stores'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
2.6
52w Position
6.0
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $133.18Resistance $171.69

Price Targets

$157
$206
A.Upside+21.9%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BOOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $169.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $156.60. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BOOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $206.31 (+22.5% upside). Prior stop was $156.60. Stop-loss: $156.60.

What are the risks of investing in BOOT?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors; Below 200-day MA.

Is BOOT overvalued or undervalued?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 19.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BOOT?

22 analysts cover BOOT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $237.

What does Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. do?Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49...

Boot Barn is the largest lifestyle retail chain for western and work-related footwear in the US with 459 stores in 49 states as of March 2025, targeting western enthusiasts and work-wear customers. Revenue comes from retail sales of boots, apparel, and accessories at brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce.

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