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Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $69.55, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to... Read more

$69.55+3.1% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#12 of 12 Apparel Retail
Stop $64.68Target $71.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$82.42+18.5%12 analysts
$71.70our TP
$69.55price
$82.42mean
$102

Sell if holding. At $69.55, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Weak overall score: 4.8/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA8.7
Profit Mgn7.5%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta1.20
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.66bearish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$40-42.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.79Resistance $77.00

Price Targets

$65
$72
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URBN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $69.55, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $64.68. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the URBN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.70 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $64.68. Stop-loss: $64.68.

What are the risks of investing in URBN?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Weak overall score: 4.8/10; Weak growth.

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued?

Urban Outfitters, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about URBN?

20 analysts cover URBN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Urban Outfitters, Inc. do?We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including...

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to our Anthropologie, Terrain and Maeve brands and "Free People" refers to our Free People and FP Movement brands.

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