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URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.Sell6.1·$80.97+0.48%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Urban Outfitters has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last quarters with an average surprise of 10.6%, and the stock sits in a technical uptrend with positive price momentum, but the current price is essentially at the analyst consensus target with no meaningful upside remaining.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Analyst CeilingImproving
  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakDeteriorating
  • Technical Momentum UptrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to... Read more

$80.97-3.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 17 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.46%
Stop $75.30Target $83.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$90.15+11.3%13 analysts
$83.72our TP
$80.97price
$90.15mean
$75
$111

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 25, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn8.8%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta1.26
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$105+29.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $71.84Resistance $85.43

Price Targets

$75
$84
A.Upside-3.1%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-25 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URBN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $75.30. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the URBN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.72 (-3.1% upside). Prior stop was $75.30. Stop-loss: $75.30.

What are the risks of investing in URBN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued?

Urban Outfitters, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about URBN?

21 analysts cover URBN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Urban Outfitters, Inc. do?We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including...

We are a leading lifestyle products and services company which operates a portfolio of global consumer brands including the Anthropologie, Free People, FP Movement, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly brands. As used in this document, unless otherwise defined, "Anthropologie" refers to our Anthropologie, Terrain and Maeve brands and "Free People" refers to our Free People and FP Movement brands.

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