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Gap, Inc. (The) (GAP) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.39: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through 2,474 company-operated stores and ~1,000 franchise locations. Almost all products are manufactured outside North America; Vietnam (27%) and Indonesia (21%) are... Read more

$22.39+21.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#12 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.24%
IncomeYield3.37%(5y avg 3.50%)Payout30.99%sustainable
Stop $20.74Target $27.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$30.21+34.9%17 analysts
$27.19our TP
$22.39price
$30.21mean
$41

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.39: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(3), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Gap, Inc. (The)

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE23.1%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta2.08
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$32+42.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierVietnam27%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 27 percent of our fiscal 2025 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Vietnam.'
  • LOWSupplierIndonesia21%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 21 percent of our fiscal 2025 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Indonesia.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.0
GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.05Resistance $25.91

Price Targets

$21
$27
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts24
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$30

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.39: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $20.74. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.19 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.74. Stop-loss: $20.74.

What are the risks of investing in GAP?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is GAP overvalued or undervalued?

Gap, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GAP?

24 analysts cover GAP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Gap, Inc. (The) do?Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through...

Gap Inc. is a global omni-channel apparel retailer operating Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands through 2,474 company-operated stores and ~1,000 franchise locations. Almost all products are manufactured outside North America; Vietnam (27%) and Indonesia (21%) are the two largest sourcing countries by purchase value.

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