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ANFAbercrombie & Fitch CompanySell6.4·$135.81
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Abercrombie & Fitch combines an attractively priced forward multiple of 7.7x with a solid Piotroski score and three consecutive earnings beats, but the risk/reward at current prices is unfavorable, the stock is overbought near-term, and free cash flow covers only 57% of reported net income.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak With Inline Caveat↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation Peer Relative→Stable
  • Free Cash Flow Quality Gap→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. At $135.81, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. sells apparel and accessories through Abercrombie and Hollister brand families via 829 company-owned and 60 franchise stores globally plus digital channels. Merchandise is sourced from approximately 124 vendors in 15 countries, with 37% from Vietnam and... Read more

$135.81+4.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 16 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.65%
Stop $126.89Target $142.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$163.55+20.4%11 analysts
$142.28our TP
$135.81price
$163.55mean
$185

Sell if holding. At $135.81, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 25, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.8%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE40.6%
Rev Growth4.8%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierVietnam vendors37%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 37% and 26% of cost of merchandise receipts during Fiscal 2025 were from vendors located in Vietnam and Cambodia, respectively'
  • MEDIUMSupplierCambodia vendors26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 37% and 26% of cost of merchandise receipts during Fiscal 2025 were from vendors located in Vietnam and Cambodia, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $130.81Resistance $155.22

Price Targets

$127
$142
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-25 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ANF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $135.81, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $126.89. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ANF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $142.28 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $126.89. Stop-loss: $126.89.

What are the risks of investing in ANF?

Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ANF overvalued or undervalued?

Abercrombie & Fitch Company trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ANF?

19 analysts cover ANF with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Abercrombie & Fitch Company do?Abercrombie & Fitch Co. sells apparel and accessories through Abercrombie and Hollister brand families via 829...

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. sells apparel and accessories through Abercrombie and Hollister brand families via 829 company-owned and 60 franchise stores globally plus digital channels. Merchandise is sourced from approximately 124 vendors in 15 countries, with 37% from Vietnam and 26% from Cambodia in Fiscal 2025.

Related stocks: BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) · REF (Reformation Inc.)
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