Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
BOOT · Why this verdict
Why Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boot Barn is a growth leader in apparel retail with 25.1% upside to the $165.42 analyst target and a strong earnings beat streak, but it is in a confirmed downtrend and free cash flow barely covers net income.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Boot Barn beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +6.27% and +12.07% in the two most recent. Last 4 quarters | EPS continues to beat estimates in the next two reports, with average surprise above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one miss (-7.24%) came in the seasonally largest quarter, so a holiday-quarter miss could repeat. | ||
The stock trades at a 13.5x forward P/E and PEG of 0.51, with earnings growth scoring 7.3 and an industry growth-leader rank. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth sustains PEG below 1.0 as price moves toward the analyst target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConsumer cyclical names carry a -1.5 sector penalty and discretionary demand may slow. | ||
At $132.24 the stock is 25.1% below the $165.42 analyst target, with analyst upside of 39%. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $165.42 target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReward-to-risk is only 1.67 against 15% downside, and the price is in a downtrend. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at 1% of net income despite a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income rises above 30% as inventory investment normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterProfit is being consumed by inventory and store growth, so reported earnings may not convert to cash. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average with a -6.5%/30d slope (a confirmed downtrend), yet momentum is 7.1/10 on rising volume. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross rarely resolves quickly and the slope is steeply negative. | ||
Boot Barn beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +6.27% and +12.07% in the two most recent.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat estimates in the next two reports, with average surprise above 3%.
CounterThe one miss (-7.24%) came in the seasonally largest quarter, so a holiday-quarter miss could repeat.
The stock trades at a 13.5x forward P/E and PEG of 0.51, with earnings growth scoring 7.3 and an industry growth-leader rank.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains PEG below 1.0 as price moves toward the analyst target.
CounterConsumer cyclical names carry a -1.5 sector penalty and discretionary demand may slow.
At $132.24 the stock is 25.1% below the $165.42 analyst target, with analyst upside of 39%.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $165.42 target over 12 months.
CounterReward-to-risk is only 1.67 against 15% downside, and the price is in a downtrend.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at 1% of net income despite a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income rises above 30% as inventory investment normalizes.
CounterProfit is being consumed by inventory and store growth, so reported earnings may not convert to cash.
The price is below its 200-day average with a -6.5%/30d slope (a confirmed downtrend), yet momentum is 7.1/10 on rising volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterA death cross rarely resolves quickly and the slope is steeply negative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 1% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 7.3 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.21
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.45
Upside
+21.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.74>1.3, MCap $4.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.5, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 1.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Catalyst at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Growth Leader
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x from current 13.5x.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $140, less than 6% above the current $132.24 price.
- P4Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below 1% for 2 more years.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Recovery
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.1.