BJ's Wholesale Club has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 5% above estimates, but business quality falls below the minimum threshold, a death cross has confirmed a downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 2% per 30 days, and less than 1% headroom to the price target at a 0.15-to-1 risk/reward make this an unattractive entry at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Upside Exhausted Unfavorable Geometry↓Deteriorating
- Quality Below Floor Thin Margins↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Conversion Severely Impaired→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 12, 2026
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I (BJ) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.12: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states, concentrated in the eastern United States, selling groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline to over 8 million paid members. Annual membership fees ($60 for Club, $120 for Club+) generated $499.8... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.12: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I
About BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I
BJ's Wholesale Club generated $499.8 million in membership fee income during fiscal 2025, operating 263 large-format warehouse clubs across 21 states and serving over 8 million paid members with 35,000 full-time and part-time employees. The New York metropolitan area contributed 23% of net sales; private label brands Wellsley Farms and Berkley Jensen accounted for approximately 27% of total net sales excluding gasoline. In its originating New England market, BJ's operates nearly three times the number of clubs as its next largest warehouse club competitor.
The membership model generates revenue from two sources: annual fees (Club at $60, Club+ at $120) that fund aggressive merchandise pricing, and sales across perishables, grocery, and sundries (approximately 87% of merchandise sales) plus general merchandise and services (approximately 13%). Club+ members and co-branded Mastercard cardholders represented 42% of the member base and 52% of merchandise spend in fiscal 2025, compared to 39% and 50%, respectively, in fiscal 2024. BJ's competes directly against Sam's Club (a division of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.) and Costco Wholesale Corporation, both of which operate on a multi-national basis with greater financial and marketing resources. Since warehouse clubs sell at thin margins relative to traditional retailers, small changes in merchandise purchase prices could adversely affect operating profits — a risk that is particularly acute because price increases often cannot be passed through to members.
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The New York metropolitan area's 23% share of net sales makes it the most material single-geography exposure in the portfolio. The 10-K identifies this region — 46 clubs spanning Long Island, the mid- and lower Hudson Valley, north and central New Jersey, three counties in western Connecticut, and five counties in northeastern Pennsylvania — as a concentration where any substantial slowing or sustained decline could materially adversely affect business and financial results. Slower comparable club sales growth, higher labor, healthcare, or energy costs, cannibalization from new club openings within the market, and adverse weather events such as hurricanes or heavy snowstorms are each identified as specific downside drivers for this geography.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
From BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I
Latest news
- NEWS Walmart Plans Three Major Holiday Shopping Events From November 12 Through December 2 — benzinga Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BJ's Wholesale Club Announces Return of Its Annual Free Turkey Giveaway — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Will Buttrey Departs BJ's Wholesale Club Following Automation Initiatives — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BJ's Wholesale Club Announces October 23 Grand Opening for Ocala, Florida Location — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line Rating on BJ's Wholesale Club — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:53:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicNew York metropolitan area23%10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in the New York metropolitan area, which accounted for 23% of net sales in fiscal year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $105.12: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $99.50. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $94.32 reached (−10.3% from $105.12); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $99.50. Stop-loss: $99.50.
Target reached (-10.3% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 23.0 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
32 analysts cover BJ with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $105.
What does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I do?BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states, concentrated in the eastern United States,...
BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states, concentrated in the eastern United States, selling groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline to over 8 million paid members. Annual membership fees ($60 for Club, $120 for Club+) generated $499.8 million in fiscal 2025, supplemented by merchandise and gasoline sales. Private label brands Wellsley Farms® and Berkley Jensen® represent approximately 27% of net sales excluding gasoline.