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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I (BJ) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Earnings in 2 days (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.38: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states concentrated in the eastern U.S., offering groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline at up to 25% savings vs. traditional supermarkets. 8M+ members pay $60-$120 annual fees; membership fee income was... Read more

$97.38-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#6 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.60%
Stop $92.13Target $96.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$104.00+6.8%20 analysts
$96.32our TP
$97.38price
$104.00mean
$74
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.38: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.2
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn2.7%
ROE28.6%
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta0.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV45%normal
Max Pain$70-28.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicNew York metropolitan area23%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial and operational performance is dependent on our operations in the New York metropolitan area, which accounted for 23% of net sales in fiscal year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
1.9
52w Position
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
3.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
3.9
Value Rank
4.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.3
Net Margin
1.3
Fcf Quality
2.7
Current Ratio
3.0
Roa
4.7
Moat
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Roe
9.5
Excellent ROE: 29%Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $90.67Resistance $98.29

Price Targets

$92
$96
A.Upside-1.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BJ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.38: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $92.13. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BJ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.32 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $92.13. Stop-loss: $92.13.

What are the risks of investing in BJ?

Target reached (-3.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is BJ overvalued or undervalued?

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BJ?

32 analysts cover BJ with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $104.

What does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I do?BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states concentrated in the eastern U.S., offering...

BJ's Wholesale Club operates 263 membership warehouse clubs in 21 states concentrated in the eastern U.S., offering groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline at up to 25% savings vs. traditional supermarkets. 8M+ members pay $60-$120 annual fees; membership fee income was $499.8M in fiscal 2025 with over 25 consecutive years of growth.

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