Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.
Dollar Tree is a leading retail discount store operator with approximately 9,000 U.S. stores and approximately 275 Canadian stores under the Dollar Tree banner; the Family Dollar business was sold in July 2025. The company sells broad-assortment discount merchandise with 85% of... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'Among our foreign suppliers, China is the source of the majority of our direct imports'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-23Item 1.02MEDIUMDollar Tree terminated its prior credit agreement on March 19, 2026, coinciding with entry into a new $500M Term Loan Facility (Bank of America as agent, maturity March 2029). No reason for termination cited beyond replacement.SEC filing →
- 2026-01-30Item 5.02MEDIUMCMO Richard McNeely stepped down at end of fiscal year 2025 (effective February 1, 2026) as part of planned retirement. Brent Beebe assumed Chief Merchandising Officer role on February 1, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $112.27 (+16.0%), stop $91.53 (−5.8%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $112.27 (+16.1% upside). Target $112.27 (+16.0%), stop $91.53 (−5.8%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $91.53.
Concentration risk — Supplier: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum.
Dollar Tree, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
34 analysts cover DLTR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $125.
What does Dollar Tree, Inc. do?Dollar Tree is a leading retail discount store operator with approximately 9,000 U.S. stores and approximately 275...
Dollar Tree is a leading retail discount store operator with approximately 9,000 U.S. stores and approximately 275 Canadian stores under the Dollar Tree banner; the Family Dollar business was sold in July 2025. The company sells broad-assortment discount merchandise with 85% of products priced at $2.00 or less, serving value-focused consumers primarily in suburban locations.