Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $92.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates ~9,000 discount retail stores under Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada following the July 2025 sale of Family Dollar. Products are priced primarily at $1.25 with 85% of items at $2.00 or less; China is the source of the majority of direct imports (~40%... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $92.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Dollar Tree, Inc.
Latest news
- Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) - Assessing Headwinds to the Expected Trade-Down Tailwind - Financial Data - Cổng thông tin điện — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai negative
- Dollar Tree Hits 5-Month Lows: Why Analysts Still See 27% Upside - 24/7 Wall St. — 24/7 Wall St. negative
- Is Tariff Jitters And Pre‑Earnings Caution Reframing The Investment Case For Dollar Tree (DLTR)? - Sahm — Sahm negative
- Analysts Have Conflicting Sentiments on These Consumer Goods Companies: Walmart (WMT) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) - The Globe — The Globe and Mail neutral
- Is It Time To Reconsider Dollar Tree (DLTR) After This Year’s 20% Share Price Slide - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'Among our foreign suppliers, China is the source of the majority of our direct imports'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-23Item 1.02MEDIUMTermination of existing revolving credit facility replaced by new $500M Term Loan Credit Agreement with Bank of America as agent, effective March 19, 2026, maturing March 19, 2029.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $92.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $111.56 (+21.1%), stop $84.27 (−9.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $111.56 (+23.1% upside). Target $111.56 (+21.1%), stop $84.27 (−9.3%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $84.27.
Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Dollar Tree, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
34 analysts cover DLTR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $124.
What does Dollar Tree, Inc. do?Dollar Tree, Inc. operates ~9,000 discount retail stores under Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada following the July...
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates ~9,000 discount retail stores under Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada following the July 2025 sale of Family Dollar. Products are priced primarily at $1.25 with 85% of items at $2.00 or less; China is the source of the majority of direct imports (~40% of total retail value purchases). No single merchandise vendor represents more than 10% of purchases.