Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.38
BJ · Why this verdict
Why BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, I (BJ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BJ's Wholesale has strong technical momentum and a 28% return on equity, but price has run above the analyst target, quality sits right at the 4.0 floor and cash conversion is weak, leaving a negative reward-to-risk at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is 7.1/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI is overbought at 71. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and RSI cools toward 50-60 without a breakdown. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought readings at a 52-week high can persist, and accumulation volume suggests buyers are still in control. | ||
Quality scores 4.0, exactly at the minimum, with an excellent 28% return on equity offset by a 41% free cash flow to net income red flag and a gross margin component of 0.0. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 70% of net income and quality rises above 5.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWarehouse clubs run thin margins by design and rely on membership fees, so a low margin component is a business-model feature rather than weakness. | ||
Price of $107.32 is 11.1% above the analyst target of $95.44, so the stated target has been reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.85. Upside pct | Either analyst targets are raised above the current price or price retraces toward the $95.44 target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag strong price moves, and a rising stock with accumulation volume can pull targets up rather than reverse. | ||
Insiders sold about $23.4 million over 17 transactions in 90 days with no buys, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 4.69. Insider breakdown | Insider selling fades and the put/call ratio normalizes below 2 as the stock consolidates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sales equal only 0.173% of market cap, which is a minor amount that may reflect routine compensation-related selling. | ||
Forward P/E of 21.4x and a PEG of 2.33 give a middling value score of 5.2, leaving little valuation cushion with growth scoring 6.2. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates so the PEG falls below 2.0 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA defensive membership business with 6.4-scored revenue growth deserves a premium multiple for stability. | ||
Momentum is 7.1/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI is overbought at 71.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and RSI cools toward 50-60 without a breakdown.
CounterOverbought readings at a 52-week high can persist, and accumulation volume suggests buyers are still in control.
Quality scores 4.0, exactly at the minimum, with an excellent 28% return on equity offset by a 41% free cash flow to net income red flag and a gross margin component of 0.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 70% of net income and quality rises above 5.0 within 12 months.
CounterWarehouse clubs run thin margins by design and rely on membership fees, so a low margin component is a business-model feature rather than weakness.
Price of $107.32 is 11.1% above the analyst target of $95.44, so the stated target has been reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.85.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either analyst targets are raised above the current price or price retraces toward the $95.44 target over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag strong price moves, and a rising stock with accumulation volume can pull targets up rather than reverse.
Insiders sold about $23.4 million over 17 transactions in 90 days with no buys, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 4.69.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades and the put/call ratio normalizes below 2 as the stock consolidates.
CounterThe sales equal only 0.173% of market cap, which is a minor amount that may reflect routine compensation-related selling.
Forward P/E of 21.4x and a PEG of 2.33 give a middling value score of 5.2, leaving little valuation cushion with growth scoring 6.2.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates so the PEG falls below 2.0 over 12 months.
CounterA defensive membership business with 6.4-scored revenue growth deserves a premium multiple for stability.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.2 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $23,444,692 (0.167% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-14.1%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 6.7 and asymmetric R:R of -1.20.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.7, Catalyst at 6.7, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 4.0, Technical at 4.2, and Insider at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds $120, more than 25% above the $95.44 analyst target, without a target raise.
- P2Quality At The Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.5 from current 4.0.
- P3Strong But Overbought Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.1.
- P4Insider Selling And Put Skew
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a 90-day window from current 0.173%.
- P5Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 3.0 from current 2.33.