Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TGT stock price target?

Take-profit $130.44 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $122.45.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TGT?

Target reached (-10.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Target reached (-10.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Q: Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

Target Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TGT?

43 analysts cover TGT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $126.

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

$128.74+1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#6 of 9 Discount Stores

Stop $122.45Target $130.44(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1

Analyst target$125.53-2.5%32 analysts

$130.44our TP

$128.74price

$125.53mean

$88

$160

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $128.74: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-10.3% upside)

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7

P/E (Fwd)15.0

Mkt Cap$58.1B

EV/EBITDA9.0

Profit Mgn3.5%

ROE24.0%

Rev Growth-1.5%

Beta1.03

Dividend3.57%

Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish

IV45%normal

Max Pain$65-49.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
SEC filing →
2026-02-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, Michael J.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.315%0.94

Quality3.815%0.57

Growth1.615%0.24

Momentum5.410%0.54

Sentiment5.110%0.51

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.610%0.46

Technical Setup5.05%0.25

Risk Profile5.85%0.29

Catalyst6.15%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)4.61

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -1.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

1.0

Revenue Growth

2.1

Declining revenue: -2%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

1.6

Net Margin

1.8

Operating Margin

2.0

Piotroski F

3.3

Roa

3.5

Current Ratio

3.8

Moat

5.0

Fcf Quality

5.3

Roe

8.0

Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9

GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

63 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $116.83Resistance $133.10

Price Targets

$122

$130

A.Upside+1.3%

A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.3% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $128.74: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $122.45. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.44 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $122.45. Stop-loss: $122.45.

What are the risks of investing in TGT?

Target reached (-10.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

Target Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TGT?

43 analysts cover TGT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $126.

What does Target Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of...

Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of everyday life. We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate as a single segment designed to enable guests to purchase products seamlessly in stores or through our digital channels. Since 1946, we have given 5 percent of our profit to communities.