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Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of everyday life. We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate... Read more

$121.50+6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#8 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield4.62%
IncomeYield3.70%(5y avg 2.94%)Payout55.60%sustainable
Stop $113.66Target $128.64(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$127.38+4.8%32 analysts
$128.64our TP
$121.50price
$127.38mean
$88
$160

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.5Qual3.7Grw1.6Mom3.9Sent5.4Ins5.0Peer4.7Tech7.8Risk6.04.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Target Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$56.0B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE24.0%
Rev Growth-1.5%
Beta1.01
Dividend3.70%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$65-46.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -2%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.6
Net Margin
1.8
Operating Margin
2.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Roa
3.5
Current Ratio
3.8
Moat
4.2
Fcf Quality
5.3
Roe
8.0
Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $116.57Resistance $131.27

Price Targets

$114
$129
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $121.50: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $113.66. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $128.64 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $113.66. Stop-loss: $113.66.

What are the risks of investing in TGT?

Target reached (-3.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is TGT overvalued or undervalued?

Target Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TGT?

43 analysts cover TGT with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Target Corporation do?Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of...

Corporation was incorporated in Minnesota in 1902. Our corporate purpose is to help all families discover the joy of everyday life. We offer our customers, referred to as "guests," fashionable, differentiated merchandise and everyday essentials at discounted prices. We operate as a single segment designed to enable guests to purchase products seamlessly in stores or through our digital channels. Since 1946, we have given 5 percent of our profit to communities.

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