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Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $115.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Dollar General is the largest discount retailer in the US by stores, with 20,959 locations in 48 states and Mexico selling consumables, seasonal, home products, and apparel at everyday low prices typically $10 or less. Revenue from small-box retail in rural, suburban, and urban... Read more

$115.13+15.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 9 Discount Stores
Stop $109.38Target $132.59(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$147.32+28.0%28 analysts
$132.59our TP
$115.13price
$147.32mean
$175

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $115.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.7
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$25.1B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.34
Dividend2.07%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$155+34.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductconsumables
    10-K Item 1A: 'our sales mix remains heavily weighted towards consumables, and there is no guarantee that these initiatives will continue to improve our sales mix'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jerry W. Fleeman Jr. hired to succeed CEO Todd Vasos effective January 1, 2027. Vasos continues as CEO until transition then as Senior Advisor through April 2027. Clean planned succession.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-03Item 5.02LOW
    Warren Bryant to retire from Board at 2026 annual meeting; David Rowland appointed Chairman effective February 4, 2026, succeeding Michael Calbert who remains on Board.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.76Resistance $127.26

Price Targets

$109
$133
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $115.13 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $109.38. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.59 (+15.6% upside). Prior stop was $109.38. Stop-loss: $109.38.

What are the risks of investing in DG?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

Dollar General Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DG?

39 analysts cover DG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $147.

What does Dollar General Corporation do?Dollar General is the largest discount retailer in the US by stores, with 20,959 locations in 48 states and Mexico...

Dollar General is the largest discount retailer in the US by stores, with 20,959 locations in 48 states and Mexico selling consumables, seasonal, home products, and apparel at everyday low prices typically $10 or less. Revenue from small-box retail in rural, suburban, and urban communities.

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