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Dollar General Corporation (DG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $103.44 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of early 2026, targeting low-income consumers with everyday-low-price merchandise (typically $10 or less). Consumables represent 82% of net sales; approximately 75% of... Read more

$103.44+26.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 9 Discount Stores
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield9.24%
IncomeYield2.22%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout34.45%sustainable
Stop $97.20Target $130.47(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$144.96+40.1%28 analysts
$130.47our TP
$103.44price
$144.96mean
$90
$175

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $103.44 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Dollar General Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$23.4B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.28
Dividend2.22%
Rating analysts39

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.29bearish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductConsumables82%
    10-K Item 1: 'Consumables| | 82.0| %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Jerry Fleeman, age 52, hired as CEO-designate to succeed Todd Vasos effective January 1, 2027. Vasos continues as CEO until then and serves as Senior Advisor through April 2, 2027. Fleeman previously CEO of Ahold Delhaize USA.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $100.21Resistance $125.01

Price Targets

$97
$130
A.Upside+26.1%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-02 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $103.44 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $97.20. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.47 (+26.1% upside). Prior stop was $97.20. Stop-loss: $97.20.

What are the risks of investing in DG?

Concentration risk — Product: Consumables (82.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is DG overvalued or undervalued?

Dollar General Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DG?

39 analysts cover DG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Dollar General Corporation do?Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of...

Dollar General is the largest US discount retailer by store count with 20,893 stores in 48 states and Mexico as of early 2026, targeting low-income consumers with everyday-low-price merchandise (typically $10 or less). Consumables represent 82% of net sales; approximately 75% of the U.S. population lives within five miles of a store.

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