Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the OLLI stock price target?

Take-profit $124.56 (+46.1% upside). Target $124.56 (+45.7%), stop $82.27 (−3.9%), A.R:R 5.5:1.

Q: Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Overall verdict: Hold.

Q: What do analysts say about OLLI?

22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $138.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

$85.49+46.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 9 Discount Stores

Stop $82.27Target $124.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.5:1

Analyst target$138.40+61.9%15 analysts

$124.56our TP

$85.49price

$138.40mean

$157

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 46%

Risks

Negative momentum

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.0

P/E (Fwd)16.7

Mkt Cap$5.2B

EV/EBITDA15.9

Profit Mgn9.1%

ROE13.4%

Rev Growth16.8%

Beta0.59

DividendNone

Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral

IV49%normal

Max Pain$55-35.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
On March 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") accepted Kevin McLain's notice of his planned retirement, which is effective May 1, 2026. Mr.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.415%1.11

Quality5.615%0.84

Growth6.915%1.03

Momentum1.310%0.13

Sentiment8.310%0.83

Insider Activity3.810%0.38

Peer Rank4.810%0.48

Technical Setup7.15%0.35

Risk Profile6.45%0.32

Catalyst6.15%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.79

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

41 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $84.81Resistance $99.19

Price Targets

$82

$125

A.Upside+45.7%

A.R:R5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OLLI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $124.56 (+45.7%), stop $82.27 (−3.9%), A.R:R 5.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OLLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $124.56 (+46.1% upside). Target $124.56 (+45.7%), stop $82.27 (−3.9%), A.R:R 5.5:1. Stop-loss: $82.27.

What are the risks of investing in OLLI?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OLLI overvalued or undervalued?

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OLLI?

22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $138.

What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings do?Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a...

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory from suppliers and manufacturers around the world.