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Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.86 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (70.0%).

Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems (airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels) for the automotive industry with $10.8B in 2025 sales across 62 production facilities in 23 countries. Revenue is from product sales to global OEMs with approximately 44% global... Read more

$117.86+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.98%
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 2.55%)Payout35.41%sustainable
Stop $111.40Target $118.96(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$132.18+12.1%17 analysts
$118.96our TP
$117.86price
$132.18mean
$110
$150

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.86 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Autoliv, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:13:12Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE28.4%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta1.32
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV35%normal
Max Pain$105-10.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers70%
    10-K Item 1: 'the Company's top ten customers represented around 70% of its consolidated net sales'
  • MEDIUMGeographicAsian OEMs48%
    10-K Item 1: 'Asian OEMs represented around 48% of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Monika Grama appointed effective April 1, 2026. Fredrik Westin leaving March 31, 2026 as previously announced. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Martin Lundstedt (voluntary, no disagreement) and Franz-Josef Kortüm (mandatory retirement age) not standing for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. Board reducing from 11 to 9 members.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $112.11Resistance $122.21

Price Targets

$111
$119
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-17 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $117.86 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (70.0%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $111.40. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the ALV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.96 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $111.40. Stop-loss: $111.40.

What are the risks of investing in ALV?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Is ALV overvalued or undervalued?

Autoliv, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALV?

24 analysts cover ALV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Autoliv, Inc. do?Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems (airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels) for the automotive...

Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems (airbags, seatbelts, steering wheels) for the automotive industry with $10.8B in 2025 sales across 62 production facilities in 23 countries. Revenue is from product sales to global OEMs with approximately 44% global passive safety market share.

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