Autoliv is cheap at 10.2x forward earnings with strong cash conversion and a 3.0% dividend, but flat revenue, two recent misses, customer concentration and a price at the analyst target limit upside.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Forward Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
- Flat Revenue Two Misses→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (70.0%).
Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems — airbags, steering wheels, and seatbelts — for global automotive OEMs from 62 production facilities in 23 countries, generating $10.8 billion in sales in 2025. The top five customers represented 44% of consolidated net... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (70.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.
About Autoliv, Inc.
About Autoliv, Inc.
Autoliv's $10.8 billion in 2025 sales split approximately 68% airbag and steering wheel products and 32% seatbelt products across 62 production facilities in 23 countries. Asian OEMs represented 48% of consolidated net sales in 2025 — with Japanese OEMs accounting for almost two thirds of that group — while European brands accounted for 30% and U.S.-based OEMs for 20%. The company held an estimated 44% global market share in passive safety.
Autoliv earns revenue through frame contracts covering the life of a vehicle model (four to seven years), with no minimum quantity commitments and subject to customer renegotiation or termination at any time. The top five customers represented 44% of consolidated net sales in 2025, with the single largest customer contract at around 2% of sales — reflecting concentrated OEM purchasing power rather than any single dominant buyer. Direct material costs approximate 54% of net sales, of which roughly half consists of raw material inputs including steel, aluminum, and nickel. Primary competitors are ZF AG and Joyson Safety Systems (JSS, formed from KSS's 2018 acquisition of Takata), with keiretsu suppliers Toyoda Gosei and Tokai Rika serving Japanese OEM captive demand and BYD subsidiary FinDreams Technology serving Chinese OEMs. NHTSA's ongoing investigation of ARC inflators poses a disclosed recall risk that, if escalated to a mandatory recall, could materially impact the company.
Show full overview
Autoliv approved a plan in May 2026 to close its manufacturing plants in Türkiye that produce steering wheels, airbags, and seatbelts, disclosed via Form 8-K on May 11, 2026. Management determined that EMEA manufacturing capacity exceeds future demand; the company expects a pre-tax charge of approximately $142 million — the majority in Q2 2026 — with cash charges of roughly $129 million for severance covering approximately 2,200 employees, and estimates an annual pre-tax benefit of $40 million beginning in 2027. Separately, CFO Fredrik Westin departed March 31, 2026; successor Monika Grama took effect April 1, 2026.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From Autoliv, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Autoliv, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Allianz General Insurance Malaysia Promotes Home Insurance Coverage Amid Evolving Risks — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Autoliv Inc (ALV) Stock Down 3.5% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 85/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Is Autoliv Stock Falling Friday? - Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) - Benzinga — Benzinga Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Autoliv slides after cost headwinds impact the bottom line (ALV:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings, stock drops - The Chronicle-Journal — The Chronicle-Journal Oct 23, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop five customers44%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, the Company's top five customers represented around 44% of its consolidated net sales'
- HIGHCustomertop ten customers70%10-K Item 1: 'the Company's top ten customers represented around 70% of its consolidated net sales'
- MEDIUMGeographicAsian OEMs48%10-K Item 1: 'Asian OEMs represented around 48% of the Company's consolidated net sales in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-11Item 2.05MEDIUMAutoliv approved closure of manufacturing plants in Türkiye (steering wheels, airbags, seatbelts), May 8, 2026. Pre-tax charge ~$142 million (majority Q2 2026); cash charges ~$129 million primarily for severance; ~2,200 employees affected. Expected $40 million annual pre-tax benefit beginning 2027.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUMMonika Grama appointed CFO and Executive VP Finance effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Fredrik Westin who departs March 31, 2026. Grama previously served as VP Finance of Autoliv EMEA since 2020. Clean handoff with named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.36 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (70.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $112.58. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $118.13 reached (−1.0% from $119.36); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $112.58. Stop-loss: $112.58.
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Autoliv, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts rate ALV, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $131.
What does Autoliv, Inc. do?Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems — airbags, steering wheels, and seatbelts — for global...
Autoliv develops and manufactures passive safety systems — airbags, steering wheels, and seatbelts — for global automotive OEMs from 62 production facilities in 23 countries, generating $10.8 billion in sales in 2025. The top five customers represented 44% of consolidated net sales, with Asian OEMs accounting for 48% of sales. Direct material costs run approximately 54% of net sales.