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Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression solutions for automotive OEMs and aftermarket distributors globally, serving light vehicle, commercial vehicle, and industrial applications. Its top 10 customers account for approximately 62% of net... Read more

$24.93+12.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 26 Auto Parts
Entry $22.08(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $20.53Target $24.78(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$22.17-11.1%6 analysts
$24.78our TP
$24.93price
$22.17mean
$19

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $24.98 has reached target $24.78. No upside to wait for. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-16.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn8.6%
ROE
Rev Growth5.6%
Beta0.44
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$3-88.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop ten customers62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten customers accounted for approximately 62% of our net sales and our largest customer accounted for approximately 12% of our net sales.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicmainland China
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our supply chain is concentrated in mainland China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.8
Extreme gap up (8.1%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
85 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.80Resistance $25.29

Price Targets

$21
$22
$25
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.8% upside)
! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GTX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $24.98 has reached target $24.78. No upside to wait for. Target $24.78 (-0.6%), stop $20.53 (−21.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.78 (+12.2% upside). Target $24.78 (-0.6%), stop $20.53 (−21.4%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $20.53.

What are the risks of investing in GTX?

Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-16.6% away).

Is GTX overvalued or undervalued?

Garrett Motion Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GTX?

9 analysts cover GTX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Garrett Motion Inc. do?Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression solutions for automotive OEMs and...

Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression solutions for automotive OEMs and aftermarket distributors globally, serving light vehicle, commercial vehicle, and industrial applications. Its top 10 customers account for approximately 62% of net sales, with the largest at approximately 12%. About 50% of 2025 R&D spend targets Electric Compression and E-Powertrain technologies.

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