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Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%).

Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression technologies for 60+ OEM customers globally; ~86% OEM revenues and 14% aftermarket in 2025. Top 10 customers accounted for ~62% of net sales; Stellantis (12%), BMW (11%), and Ford (11%) are the three... Read more

$29.86+6.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.04%
IncomeYield1.05%Payout16.37%sustainable
Stop $27.77Target $31.79(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$30.17+1.0%6 analysts
$31.79our TP
$29.86price
$30.17mean
$24
$36

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Garrett Motion Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.8
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE
Rev Growth12.2%
Beta0.69
Dividend1.05%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.93bearish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop ten customers62%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for approximately 62% of net sales and our largest customer represented approximately 12% of our net sales in 2025'
  • LOWCustomerStellantis12%
    10-K Item 1: 'our sales to Stellantis accounted for 12%, 9% and 9%, respectively, of our total sales'
  • LOWCustomerBMW11%
    10-K Item 1: 'our sales to Bayerische Motoren Werke AG ("BMW"), our second largest customer, were 11%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, of our total sales'
  • LOWCustomerFord11%
    10-K Item 1: 'our sales to Ford Motor Company ("Ford"), our third largest customer, were 11%, 10%, and 9%, respectively, of our total sales'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.00Resistance $32.44

Price Targets

$28
$32
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GTX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.86 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $27.77. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.79 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $27.77. Stop-loss: $27.77.

What are the risks of investing in GTX?

Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Is GTX overvalued or undervalued?

Garrett Motion Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GTX?

10 analysts cover GTX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Garrett Motion Inc. do?Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression technologies for 60+ OEM customers...

Garrett Motion designs and manufactures turbochargers and electric compression technologies for 60+ OEM customers globally; ~86% OEM revenues and 14% aftermarket in 2025. Top 10 customers accounted for ~62% of net sales; Stellantis (12%), BMW (11%), and Ford (11%) are the three largest. More than 89% of products are manufactured in low-cost countries.

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