Dorman Products screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 13.5x and a PEG of 0.26, with four consecutive earnings beats and approximately 21% analyst upside from current price, but a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross hard block and a critical free cash flow quality shortfall limit the conviction for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Quality Red Flag↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $142.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands, serving North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers across light-duty, heavy-duty, and specialty... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $142.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Dorman Products, Inc.
About Dorman Products, Inc.
Dorman Products marketed approximately 144,000 distinct aftermarket replacement and upgrade parts under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brand names as of December 31, 2025, introducing 5,560 new distinct parts during the year. The company serviced approximately 9,000 active accounts, primarily North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and specialty dealers, with two customers each representing more than 10% of net sales and together accounting for roughly 40% of net sales in 2025.
Dorman earns revenue across three vehicle market sectors — light-duty (passenger cars and trucks), heavy-duty (medium and heavy commercial vehicles), and specialty (UTVs and ATVs via SuperATV) — with the majority of net sales coming from repair-category parts rather than discretionary upgrades. Light-duty parts reach consumers and professional installers through aftermarket retailers, dealers, and warehouse distributors. The company sources roughly 77% of product purchase volume from non-U.S. suppliers, with approximately 38% from China, making it subject to tariff pass-through dynamics; beginning in the third quarter of 2025, Dorman implemented price increases to offset new tariff costs, though management noted the increases compressed gross margin percentages without adding profit dollars. Competitors in light-duty aftermarket include Standard Motor Products, Tenneco, Gates Corporation, Bosch Auto Parts, and ACDelco (General Motors), among others named in the 10-K.
Show full overview
The two top customers representing roughly 40% of net sales in 2025 — each individually above 10% — constitute the sharpest single-point dependency in the business. Dorman's contracts with these buyers typically lack purchase commitments and rely on individual purchase orders, meaning either customer could reduce or redirect demand without contractual recourse. The 10-K notes that ongoing consolidation in the aftermarket industry may amplify this risk, as larger buyers gain greater bargaining power to demand lower pricing, extended payment terms, and higher return allowances — trends the company says it expects to continue.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From Dorman Products, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Dorman Products, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Dorman Products Launches New OE FIX® Engine Oil Filter Housing — fiscal.ai Nov 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Dorman Products (DORM) Cuts Sales Outlook, Is The Stock Fully Priced? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo & Company Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Dorman Products (NASDAQ:DORM) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Can Dorman Products (NASDAQ:DORM) Hold a 46.1% Gross Margin as Tariff Refunds Fade in October 26 Earnings? - kalkine.ca — kalkine.ca Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Dorman Products (DORM) Slips 2.15% to $121.23 as Shares Sit Mid-Range Between Key Levels - MESA MA - https://www.dars.go — https://www.dars.gov.et/ Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-two customers40%10-K Item 1A: 'two customers each represented more than 10% of net sales and together accounted for approximately 40% of net sales'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our total volume of purchases of products was sourced from non-U.S. suppliers, with approximately 38% sourced from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $142.41 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $132.44. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $137.57 reached (−3.4% from $142.41); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $132.44. Stop-loss: $132.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Dorman Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts rate DORM, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $158.
What does Dorman Products, Inc. do?Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the...
Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands, serving North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers across light-duty, heavy-duty, and specialty vehicle sectors. Two top customers accounted for roughly 40% of net sales in 2025, with most products sourced from third-party manufacturers.