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Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers (40.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Dorman Products supplies ~144,000 distinct aftermarket parts for light, medium, heavy-duty, and specialty vehicles (UTV/ATV) under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands primarily in North America. Two customers individually accounted for >10% of 2025 net sales, together... Read more

$112.83+17.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.18%
Stop $104.93Target $132.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$152.25+34.9%8 analysts
$132.46our TP
$112.83price
$152.25mean
$170

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers (40.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Dorman Products, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers (40.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn8.8%
ROE13.6%
Rev Growth4.2%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-2 customers40%
    10-K Item 1: 'we had two customers that individually accounted for more than 10% of net sales and, in the aggregate, accounted for approximately 40% of net sales.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina38%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 38% of our total volume of purchases of products were from third-party suppliers located in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
4.7
Quality Rank
6.7
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $105.25Resistance $127.39

Price Targets

$105
$132
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DORM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $112.83 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers (40.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $104.93. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the DORM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.46 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $104.93. Stop-loss: $104.93.

What are the risks of investing in DORM?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-2 customers (40.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DORM overvalued or undervalued?

Dorman Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DORM?

14 analysts cover DORM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $152.

What does Dorman Products, Inc. do?Dorman Products supplies ~144,000 distinct aftermarket parts for light, medium, heavy-duty, and specialty vehicles...

Dorman Products supplies ~144,000 distinct aftermarket parts for light, medium, heavy-duty, and specialty vehicles (UTV/ATV) under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands primarily in North America. Two customers individually accounted for >10% of 2025 net sales, together ~40%; China sourced ~38% of total product purchases. Revenue is driven by repair, maintenance, and upgrade parts sold through retailers, distributors, and dealers.

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