Dorman Products screens attractively valued at a forward P/E of 13.5x and a PEG of 0.26, with four consecutive earnings beats and approximately 21% analyst upside from current price, but a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross hard block and a critical free cash flow quality shortfall limit the conviction for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. At $131.30, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands, serving North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers across light-duty, heavy-duty, and specialty... Read more
Sell if holding. At $131.30, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Dorman Products, Inc.
About Dorman Products, Inc.
Dorman Products marketed approximately 144,000 distinct aftermarket replacement and upgrade parts under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brand names as of December 31, 2025, introducing 5,560 new distinct parts during the year. The company serviced approximately 9,000 active accounts, primarily North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and specialty dealers, with two customers each representing more than 10% of net sales and together accounting for roughly 40% of net sales in 2025.
Dorman earns revenue across three vehicle market sectors — light-duty (passenger cars and trucks), heavy-duty (medium and heavy commercial vehicles), and specialty (UTVs and ATVs via SuperATV) — with the majority of net sales coming from repair-category parts rather than discretionary upgrades. Light-duty parts reach consumers and professional installers through aftermarket retailers, dealers, and warehouse distributors. The company sources roughly 77% of product purchase volume from non-U.S. suppliers, with approximately 38% from China, making it subject to tariff pass-through dynamics; beginning in the third quarter of 2025, Dorman implemented price increases to offset new tariff costs, though management noted the increases compressed gross margin percentages without adding profit dollars. Competitors in light-duty aftermarket include Standard Motor Products, Tenneco, Gates Corporation, Bosch Auto Parts, and ACDelco (General Motors), among others named in the 10-K.
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The two top customers representing roughly 40% of net sales in 2025 — each individually above 10% — constitute the sharpest single-point dependency in the business. Dorman's contracts with these buyers typically lack purchase commitments and rely on individual purchase orders, meaning either customer could reduce or redirect demand without contractual recourse. The 10-K notes that ongoing consolidation in the aftermarket industry may amplify this risk, as larger buyers gain greater bargaining power to demand lower pricing, extended payment terms, and higher return allowances — trends the company says it expects to continue.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
From Dorman Products, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-06Recent Developments — Dorman Products, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Acquires 51,653 Shares of Dorman Products, Inc. $DORM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Dorman Products: Mispriced Ahead Of Q1 Earnings (NASDAQ:DORM) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS There May Be Some Bright Spots In Dorman Products' (NASDAQ:DORM) Earnings - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Is Dorman (DORM) stock attractive at current levels | Q4 2025: Profit Disappoints - Value Pick - UBND thành phố Hải Phòn — UBND thành phố Hải Phòng negative
- NEWS Is Dorman (DORM) stock attractive at current levels | Q4 2025: Profit Disappoints - Macro Risk - Cổng thông tin điện tử — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La negative
Generated 2026-09-06T11:17:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-two customers40%10-K Item 1A: 'two customers each represented more than 10% of net sales and together accounted for approximately 40% of net sales'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our total volume of purchases of products was sourced from non-U.S. suppliers, with approximately 38% sourced from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $131.30, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $124.38. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $141.27 (+7.6% upside). Prior stop was $124.38. Stop-loss: $124.38.
Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Dorman Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover DORM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $162.
What does Dorman Products, Inc. do?Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the...
Dorman Products supplies roughly 144,000 replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, and SuperATV brands, serving North American retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers across light-duty, heavy-duty, and specialty vehicle sectors. Two top customers accounted for roughly 40% of net sales in 2025, with most products sourced from third-party manufacturers.