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HSAIHesai GroupBuy Wait6.3·$18.19-5.71%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business is expanding revenue at 30% year-over-year, has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and screens as the peer group's growth leader with best-in-class margins — but the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross, and leverage of 9.2 times equity amplifies the downside if growth or cash generation disappoints, making the valuation discount real but the timing of entry highly uncertain.

Thesis pillars

  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • High Leverage Financial RiskImproving
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hesai Group (HSAI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 2 days (2026-08-18). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $17.38. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.19. Engine's entry $17.38 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation... Read more

$18.19+46.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 36 Auto Parts
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
Entry $17.38(1 ATR pullback)Stop $16.16Target $26.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$29.66+63.0%17 analysts
$26.69our TP
$18.19price
$29.66mean
$36

Wait for pullback to $17.38. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.19. Engine's entry $17.38 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 47%
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.9
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$22.9B
EV/EBITDA-16.5
Profit Mgn14.8%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth29.6%
Beta1.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV153%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.8
Support Resistance
2.5
Bollinger
3.3
Gap
6.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.29Resistance $19.51

Price Targets

$16
$17
$27
A.Upside+46.6%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSAI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $17.38. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.19. Engine's entry $17.38 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $26.69 (+46.7%), stop $16.16 (−12.6%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.69 (+46.6% upside). Target $26.69 (+46.7%), stop $16.16 (−12.6%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $16.16.

What are the risks of investing in HSAI?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HSAI overvalued or undervalued?

Hesai Group trades at a P/E of 37.9 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HSAI?

31 analysts cover HSAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Hesai Group do?Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional...

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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