Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
ALV · Why this verdict
Why Autoliv (ALV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autoliv is cheap at 10.2x forward earnings with strong cash conversion and a 3.0% dividend, but flat revenue, two recent misses, customer concentration and a price at the analyst target limit upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 10.2x and a PEG of 0.27 mark the stock as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x as earnings hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAuto-parts earnings are tied to vehicle production cycles and a low multiple may reflect cyclical earnings risk. | ||
Free cash flow equals about 125% of net income and the dividend yield is 3.0%. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the dividend is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterNo competitive moat and a quality score of 4.7 leave the dividend exposed in a downturn. | ||
Quarterly revenue is flat near $2.7B to $2.8B and EPS missed in the last two quarters. Earnings | Revenue grows and EPS returns to beats at the January 2027 report. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining or flat revenue with consecutive misses signals margin pressure. | ||
The $117.54 price is within 0.5% of the $118.13 analyst target, leaving almost no upside. Targets | Analysts raise the target or price pulls back. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout setup with positive momentum could carry the price beyond targets. | ||
The top ten customers account for 70% of revenue, a heavy dependence on a few automakers. Bear case | Top-ten customer share stays at or below 70%. | →Stable |
| CounterAutomaker production cuts would hit revenue directly. | ||
Forward P/E of 10.2x and a PEG of 0.27 mark the stock as attractively valued.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x as earnings hold.
CounterAuto-parts earnings are tied to vehicle production cycles and a low multiple may reflect cyclical earnings risk.
Free cash flow equals about 125% of net income and the dividend yield is 3.0%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the dividend is maintained.
CounterNo competitive moat and a quality score of 4.7 leave the dividend exposed in a downturn.
Quarterly revenue is flat near $2.7B to $2.8B and EPS missed in the last two quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Revenue grows and EPS returns to beats at the January 2027 report.
CounterDeclining or flat revenue with consecutive misses signals margin pressure.
The $117.54 price is within 0.5% of the $118.13 analyst target, leaving almost no upside.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise the target or price pulls back.
CounterA breakout setup with positive momentum could carry the price beyond targets.
The top ten customers account for 70% of revenue, a heavy dependence on a few automakers.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Top-ten customer share stays at or below 70%.
CounterAutomaker production cuts would hit revenue directly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.3 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 125% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 9.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.37>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Momentum at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Technical at 4.2, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80%.
- P3Flat Revenue Two Misses
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $2.5B.
- P4Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 10%.
- P5Customer Concentration
Trip ifTop ten customer share exceeds 75% of revenue.