Allison Transmission Holdings, (ALSN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $134.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers.
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $134.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-5 OEM customers (52% of net sales)52%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five OEM customers accounted for approximately 52%, 55% and 52% of our net sales, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source component suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 75% of our total spending on components was sourced from approximately 40 suppliers, many of which are the single source for such components'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -7.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $134.41 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $127.40. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $134.87 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $127.40. Stop-loss: $127.40.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source component suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away).
Allison Transmission Holdings, trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ALSN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $133.
What does Allison Transmission Holdings, do?Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic...
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction of off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company also provides its transmissions and electric propulsion solutions under the Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand name. In addition, it sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its solutions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.