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Allison Transmission Holdings, (ALSN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. At $108.01, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%).

Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and U.S. defense vehicles, with ~76% of revenues from North America in 2025. Revenue comes from OEM customers under long-term agreements... Read more

$108.01+9.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.44%
IncomeYield1.07%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout17.11%sustainable
Stop $104.15Target $118.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$136.50+26.4%10 analysts
$118.75our TP
$108.01price
$136.50mean
$185

Sell if holding. At $108.01, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Allison Transmission Holdings,

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%)
Thin upside margin: 9.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.8
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn14.9%
ROE30.4%
Rev Growth83.6%
Beta1.01
Dividend1.07%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.21bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$100-7.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 5 OEM customers52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five OEM customers accounted for approximately 52%, 55% and 52% of our net sales, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerDaimler AG18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers, Daimler AG, PACCAR Inc. and Traton SE, accounted for approximately 18%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales during 2025.'
  • HIGHGeographicNorth America76%
    10-K Item 1: 'We have a global presence by serving customers in North America, Asia, Europe, South America, and Africa, with approximately 76% of our revenues being generated in North America in 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved Eric Scroggins (Chief Legal Officer) as Tier 1 Participant in the Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan on May 6, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 107.0%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
5.1
Rsi
8.4
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $107.37Resistance $137.28

Price Targets

$104
$119
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALSN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $108.01, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $104.15. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ALSN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $118.75 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $104.15. Stop-loss: $104.15.

What are the risks of investing in ALSN?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.9%.

Is ALSN overvalued or undervalued?

Allison Transmission Holdings, trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALSN?

17 analysts cover ALSN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $137.

What does Allison Transmission Holdings, do?Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty...

Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and U.S. defense vehicles, with ~76% of revenues from North America in 2025. Revenue comes from OEM customers under long-term agreements covering on-highway, defense, and off-highway markets, plus a growing aftermarket parts business.

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