Allison Transmission Holdings, (ALSN) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. At $108.35, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%).
Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and U.S. defense vehicles, with ~76% of revenues from North America in 2025. Revenue comes from OEM customers under long-term agreements... Read more
Sell if holding. At $108.35, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 13, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Allison Transmission Holdings,
Latest news
- Vest Financial LLC Purchases 10,824 Shares of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. $ALSN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- Earnings Preview: ALSN to Report Financial Results Post-market on May 04 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- Why Allison Transmission Stock Is Sinking After Record Highs - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- Allison Transmission (ALSN) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- Polaris Capital Management LLC Trims Stock Position in Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. $ALSN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:13:12Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 5 OEM customers52%10-K Item 1A: 'our top five OEM customers accounted for approximately 52%, 55% and 52% of our net sales, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomerDaimler AG18%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers, Daimler AG, PACCAR Inc. and Traton SE, accounted for approximately 18%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales during 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicNorth America76%10-K Item 1: 'We have a global presence by serving customers in North America, Asia, Europe, South America, and Africa, with approximately 76% of our revenues being generated in North America in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved Eric Scroggins (Chief Legal Officer) as Tier 1 Participant in the Executive Change in Control and Severance Plan on May 6, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $108.35, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 13, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $103.12. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $118.75 (+9.6% upside). Prior stop was $103.12. Stop-loss: $103.12.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 5 OEM customers (52.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (76.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.6%.
Allison Transmission Holdings, trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ALSN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $137.
What does Allison Transmission Holdings, do?Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty...
Allison Transmission is the world's largest manufacturer of fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and U.S. defense vehicles, with ~76% of revenues from North America in 2025. Revenue comes from OEM customers under long-term agreements covering on-highway, defense, and off-highway markets, plus a growing aftermarket parts business.