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WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.Sell4.9·$227.53-0.27%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Williams-Sonoma operates an elite-quality retail franchise with a return on equity of 54%, a perfect Piotroski score of 8/9, and four consecutive earnings beats — but the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8x near its 52-week high with a highly concentrated e-commerce revenue stream that accounts for 65% of sales.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Profitability ReturnsStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Ecommerce Concentration RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%).

Williams-Sonoma sells premium home furnishings and kitchen products through nine brands—including Pottery Barn and West Elm—operating 506 company-owned stores in the US, Canada, Australia, and UK plus 90 franchised locations. About 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues came from... Read more

$227.53+5.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#19 of 24 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.31%
IncomeYield1.34%(5y avg 1.73%)Payout30.72%sustainable
Stop $211.79Target $239.76(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$211.58-7.0%19 analysts
$239.76our TP
$227.53price
$211.58mean
$138
$260

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

About Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Williams-Sonoma generated approximately 65% of net revenues through e-commerce in fiscal 2025, spanning nine brands—including Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Williams Sonoma—sold through 506 company-operated stores and 90 franchised locations across four continents. The company employed approximately 19,800 people at February 1, 2026. The portfolio covers kitchen equipment, furniture, bedding, lighting, and décor across distinct customer demographics from families to teens.

The company sells proprietary home furnishings and kitchen products at retail through its e-commerce websites, retail stores, and direct-mail catalogs, plus a business-to-business division targeting commercial and hospitality clients. About 81% of merchandise purchases were sourced internationally in fiscal 2025—with China (19%), Vietnam (16%), and India (15%) as the three largest single-country sources—requiring ordering up to twelve months ahead of the selling season. The company also manufactures upholstered furniture and lighting at facilities in Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oregon. Competitors range from department stores and specialty retailers to discount e-commerce entrants selling undifferentiated products at reduced prices; the continued shift to e-commerce has lowered barriers for new market entrants. The Key Rewards loyalty and credit card program spans all nine brands, deepening repeat purchase relationships.

Show full overview

Williams-Sonoma's 506 retail stores are positioned as "billboards" and omni-fulfillment hubs rather than the primary transactional venue, with the 65% e-commerce concentration making digital demand the dominant revenue driver. The business-to-business division—targeting commercial furniture and hospitality verticals—exposes the company to clients' budget cycles and purchasing timing, which may diverge from consumer e-commerce trends. Inventory ordered up to twelve months in advance of peak season creates markdown exposure if consumer preferences shift before the October–January selling window.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

From Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.5
P/E (Fwd)22.2
Mkt Cap$26.8B
EV/EBITDA16.8
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE54.0%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta1.49
Dividend1.34%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish
IV47%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProducte-commerce sales65%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 65% of our net revenues were generated by e-commerce sales in fiscal 2025'
  • LOWSupplierChina
    10-K Item 1: 'merchandise purchases were sourced from foreign suppliers, with approximately 19% from China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.9
Revenue Growth
3.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $201.64Resistance $244.65

Price Targets

$212
$240
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $227.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $211.79. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $239.76 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $211.79. Stop-loss: $211.79.

What are the risks of investing in WSM?

Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is WSM overvalued or undervalued?

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSM?

27 analysts cover WSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $212.

What does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. do?Williams-Sonoma sells premium home furnishings and kitchen products through nine brands—including Pottery Barn and West...

Williams-Sonoma sells premium home furnishings and kitchen products through nine brands—including Pottery Barn and West Elm—operating 506 company-owned stores in the US, Canada, Australia, and UK plus 90 franchised locations. About 65% of fiscal 2025 revenues came from e-commerce. In-house product design and a proprietary customer database underpin the company's omni-channel model.

Related stocks: MNSO (MINISO Group Holding Limited) · FIVE (Five Below, Inc.) · ULTA (Ulta Beauty, Inc.) · MUSA (Murphy USA Inc.) · BBWI (Bath & Body Works, Inc.)
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