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Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Bath & Body Works is a personal care and home fragrance retailer with 1,927 company-operated stores in the U.S. and Canada, 573 international partner stores, and e-commerce across 45+ countries, anchored by a 40-million-member loyalty program. Revenue comes from product sales;... Read more

$16.45+43.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#10 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield22.02%
IncomeYield4.68%(5y avg 5.47%)Payout25.72%sustainable
Stop $15.87Target $23.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$27.07+64.6%14 analysts
$23.55our TP
$16.45price
$27.07mean
$56

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Bath & Body Works, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 63%
Analyst upside: 43%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE
Rev Growth-2.3%
Beta1.39
Dividend4.68%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV91%elevated
Max Pain$9-45.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierlargest vendor12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest vendor supplied approximately 12% of our total merchandise purchases (on a dollar basis) during 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographiccentral Ohio
    10-K Item 1A: 'the geographic concentration of third-party manufacturing facilities and our distribution facilities in central Ohio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Michael Wu ceased as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary effective February 24, 2026. Company initiated search for next CLO. Wu to serve as non-executive employee through ~March 27, 2026 Separation Date. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -2.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.36Resistance $21.68

Price Targets

$16
$24
A.Upside+43.2%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBWI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.45 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $15.87. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the BBWI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.55 (+43.3% upside). Prior stop was $15.87. Stop-loss: $15.87.

What are the risks of investing in BBWI?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is BBWI overvalued or undervalued?

Bath & Body Works, Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBWI?

22 analysts cover BBWI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Bath & Body Works, Inc. do?Bath & Body Works is a personal care and home fragrance retailer with 1,927 company-operated stores in the U.S. and...

Bath & Body Works is a personal care and home fragrance retailer with 1,927 company-operated stores in the U.S. and Canada, 573 international partner stores, and e-commerce across 45+ countries, anchored by a 40-million-member loyalty program. Revenue comes from product sales; Q4 (holiday season) represented ~29% of fiscal 2025 net sales. The largest vendor supplied approximately 12% of merchandise purchases and top-5 vendors ~40% combined.

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