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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $162.96. At $168.65 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $162.96 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids, and Rejuvenation across 506 stores in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and U.K. Approximately 65% of net revenues (~$16B annual) come... Read more

$168.65+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.29%
IncomeYield1.77%(5y avg 1.73%)Payout29.86%sustainable
Entry $162.96(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $151.75Target $183.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$204.11+21.0%19 analysts
$183.69our TP
$168.65price
$204.11mean
$136
$230

Wait for pullback to $162.96. At $168.65 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $162.96 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$20.2B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn13.9%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta1.49
Dividend1.77%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$280+66.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.5
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $165.51Resistance $198.79

Price Targets

$152
$163
$184
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R1.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $162.96. At $168.65 the A.R:R is 1.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $162.96 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $183.69 (+8.9%), stop $151.75 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the WSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $183.69 (+9.1% upside). Target $183.69 (+8.9%), stop $151.75 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $151.75.

What are the risks of investing in WSM?

Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is WSM overvalued or undervalued?

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WSM?

27 analysts cover WSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $204.

What does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. do?Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn,...

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty home retailer operating brands including Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids, and Rejuvenation across 506 stores in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and U.K. Approximately 65% of net revenues (~$16B annual) come from e-commerce. Products are sourced 81% internationally, with China (19%), Vietnam (16%), and India (15%) as the largest sourcing countries.

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