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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.47 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%).

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty retailer of high-quality home products operating brands including Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Williams Sonoma across e-commerce, catalogs, and retail stores in the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK. Approximately 65% of net revenues... Read more

$182.47+2.3% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#14 of 18 Specialty Retail
Stop $170.47Target $186.06(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$206.74+13.3%19 analysts
$186.06our TP
$182.47price
$206.74mean
$136
$230

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.47 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$21.6B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn13.9%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta1.58
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$95-47.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProducte-commerce sales65%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 65% of our net revenues were generated by e-commerce sales in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.5
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $175.74Resistance $208.74

Price Targets

$170
$186
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.3% upside)
! Momentum score 1.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-20 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.47 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $170.47. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $186.06 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $170.47. Stop-loss: $170.47.

What are the risks of investing in WSM?

Concentration risk — Product: e-commerce sales (65.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Is WSM overvalued or undervalued?

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WSM?

27 analysts cover WSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. do?Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty retailer of high-quality home products operating brands including Pottery...

Williams-Sonoma is an omni-channel specialty retailer of high-quality home products operating brands including Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Williams Sonoma across e-commerce, catalogs, and retail stores in the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK. Approximately 65% of net revenues came from e-commerce in fiscal 2025, sold to consumers and business-to-business customers across home furnishings, kitchen, and lifestyle categories. The company has unaffiliated franchise partners in Mexico, South Korea, India, and the Philippines.

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