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WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporatioSell6.2·$56.93+4.57%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.

Thesis pillars

  • Upside Exhaustion Target ReachedDeteriorating
  • Valuation Attractive MultiplesImproving
  • Revenue Earnings Growth TrajectoryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and... Read more

$56.93+12.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 18 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield43.30%
IncomeYield0.98%Payout12.17%sustainable
Stop $52.94Target $64.03(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$75.33+32.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%)
Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)9.1
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta0.75
Dividend0.98%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductLeasing and Related Operations segment95%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total revenues from our Leasing and Related Operations reportable segment was 94.9% and 95.4% of the respective total consolidated revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicleased and operated internationally65%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 64.8% of our on-lease engines, aircraft, and related equipment (all of which we sometimes refer to as "equipment") by net book value are leased and operated internationally'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.6
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.17%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.60Resistance $74.05

Price Targets

$53
$64
A.Upside+12.5%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WLFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.93: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $52.94. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WLFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.03 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $52.94. Stop-loss: $52.94.

What are the risks of investing in WLFC?

Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%); Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).

Is WLFC overvalued or undervalued?

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WLFC?

6 analysts cover WLFC with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Willis Lease Finance Corporatio do?Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial...

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and leasing commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and related aircraft equipment, as well as the purchase and resale of commercial aircraft engines and other aircraft equipment, and service and maintenance related businesses. It also purchases and resells after-market engine parts, whole engines, engine modules, and portable aircraft components. The company serves commercial aircraft operators, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul organizations. Willis Lease Finance Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Coconut Creek, Florida.

Related stocks: PRG (PROG Holdings, Inc.) · LIME (Neutron Holdings, Inc.) · GATX (GATX Corporation) · EQPT (EquipmentShare.com Inc) · HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.)
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