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PRGPROG Holdings, Inc.Sell6.0·$35.85+1.70%
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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. At $35.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale... Read more

$35.85+11.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield103.73%
IncomeYield1.56%(5y avg 0.28%)Payout13.49%sustainable
Stop $33.34Target $39.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$45.79+27.7%7 analysts
$39.83our TP
$35.85price
$45.79mean
$33
$57

Sell if holding. At $35.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA5.6
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta1.83
Dividend1.56%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$20-44.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.51Resistance $38.57

Price Targets

$33
$40
A.Upside+11.1%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $35.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.34. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PRG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.83 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $33.34. Stop-loss: $33.34.

What are the risks of investing in PRG?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Elevated risk factors.

Is PRG overvalued or undervalued?

PROG Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRG?

12 analysts cover PRG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $46.

What does PROG Holdings, Inc. do?PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United...

PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

Related stocks: WLFC (Willis Lease Finance Corporatio) · HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.) · GATX (GATX Corporation) · EQPT (EquipmentShare.com Inc) · HTZ (Hertz Global Holdings, Inc)
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