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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale... Read more

$33.03+20.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#4 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield110.18%
IncomeYield1.66%(5y avg 0.28%)Payout13.49%sustainable
Stop $30.72Target $39.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$45.79+38.6%7 analysts
$39.83our TP
$33.03price
$45.79mean
$57

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — PROG Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 43%
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta1.83
Dividend1.66%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.4
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.75Resistance $36.69

Price Targets

$31
$40
A.Upside+20.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PRG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $30.72. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PRG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.83 (+20.6% upside). Prior stop was $30.72. Stop-loss: $30.72.

What are the risks of investing in PRG?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is PRG overvalued or undervalued?

PROG Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PRG?

12 analysts cover PRG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $46.

What does PROG Holdings, Inc. do?PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United...

PROG Holdings, Inc., a financial technology holding company, provides payment options to consumers in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Progressive Leasing and Four. It owns Progressive Leasing, an in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale lease-to-own solutions provider; and Four, which enables consumers of all credit backgrounds to pay for purchases over time through short-term, interest-free instalment buy-now-pay-later BNPL plans. The company offers Purchasing Power, that provides these underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing options. The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc. in December 2020. PROG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

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