PROG Holdings is a lease-to-own financial services company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, exceptional free cash flow conversion at 1000% of net income, and a breakout technical setup with RSI of 64, but the stock has only 3.7% upside to the analyst consensus target and short interest of 11% creates a modest near-term overhang.
Thesis pillars
- Breakout Technical Setup→Stable
- Exceptional Fcf Beat Streak→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Peer Ranking→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $40.08 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Progressive Leasing segment (96.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten POS partners (77.0%).
PROG Holdings is a financial technology holding company offering lease-to-own and buy-now-pay-later payment options to subprime and near-prime consumers. Its Progressive Leasing segment leases merchandise through roughly 24,000 point-of-sale retail partners and generated... Read more
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $40.08 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Progressive Leasing segment (96.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten POS partners (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About PROG Holdings, Inc.
About PROG Holdings, Inc.
PROG Holdings generated approximately 96% of its 2025 consolidated revenue from the Progressive Leasing segment, which offers lease-to-own solutions through roughly 24,000 point-of-sale partner locations across 45 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The remainder comes from Four, a buy-now-pay-later mobile app, and, following the January 2026 acquisition of Purchasing Power, a payroll-deduction purchase program. The company employed 1,235 people across its segments as of December 31, 2025, none covered by a collective bargaining agreement.
Progressive Leasing earns revenue by purchasing merchandise from retail partners and leasing it to subprime and near-prime consumers who lack access to traditional financing, with furniture, appliances, and electronics accounting for 58% of segment revenue, mobile phones and accessories 16%, and jewelry 15%. Four earns revenue through interest-free installment plans, split between 46% transaction income, 29% subscription revenue, and 25% income from other sources in 2025. The business depends heavily on a small number of large retail partners: in 2025, Progressive Leasing's top three POS partners accounted for 54.8% of consolidated revenue and its top ten accounted for 77.0%. Two prior top-ten partners, Big Lots and American Signature, filed for bankruptcy and liquidated in 2024 and 2025 respectively, weighing on results. Purchasing Power instead relies on employer payroll-deduction relationships rather than retail point-of-sale traffic.
Show full overview
PROG Holdings' Progressive Leasing business operates under a 2020 FTC settlement requiring enhanced consumer disclosures after alleged violations of the FTC Act, and in December 2025 attorneys general from seven states opened a coordinated inquiry into BNPL practices industry-wide, though the initial letters targeted six other BNPL providers rather than the company's Four unit. New York's 2025 BNPL law adds licensing and ability-to-repay requirements that could reshape Four's compliance costs as more states pursue similar statutes. On May 7, 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that CEO Steven Michaels was elected Chairman of the Board, succeeding Ray Robinson, who became Lead Independent Director.
See also: Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
From PROG Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-29Recent Developments — PROG Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PRG Looks 4.6% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Growth Momentum Shines - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Why PROG (PRG) Shares Are Falling Today - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Why PROG (PRG) Shares Are Falling Today - stockstory.org — stockstory.org negative
- NEWS Why PROG (PRG) Shares Are Falling Today - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Is PROG Holdings Inc (PRG) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings Beat? EPS: $0.92, Revenue: $719.7M, GF Score: 90/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-08-29T09:07:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductProgressive Leasing segment96%10-K Item 1: 'The Progressive Leasing segment comprised approximately 96% of our consolidated revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- HIGHCustomertop ten POS partners77%10-K Item 1A: '77.0% of our consolidated revenues from customers of Progressive Leasing's top ten POS partners'
- HIGHCustomertop three POS partners55%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived 54.8% of our consolidated revenues from customers of Progressive Leasing's top three POS partners'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWCEO Steven A. Michaels was elected Chairman of the Board effective immediately, succeeding Ray M. Robinson, who was appointed Lead Independent Director. Board also awarded Michaels a $5 million special RSU grant. No departure; clean board leadership succession.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $40.08 but weak momentum; recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Progressive Leasing segment (96.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten POS partners (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $46.48 (+18.9%), stop $37.57 (−4.1%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.48 (+18.9% upside). Target $46.48 (+18.9%), stop $37.57 (−4.1%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $37.57.
Concentration risk — Product: Progressive Leasing segment (96.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten POS partners (77.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
PROG Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
12 analysts cover PRG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $53.
What does PROG Holdings, Inc. do?PROG Holdings is a financial technology holding company offering lease-to-own and buy-now-pay-later payment options to...
PROG Holdings is a financial technology holding company offering lease-to-own and buy-now-pay-later payment options to subprime and near-prime consumers. Its Progressive Leasing segment leases merchandise through roughly 24,000 point-of-sale retail partners and generated approximately 96% of 2025 consolidated revenue. The company also owns the Four BNPL app and, after a January 2026 acquisition, Purchasing Power's payroll-deduction purchase program.