Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
WLFC · Why this verdict
Why Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential. Key risks | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding. | →Stable |
| CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower. | ||
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand. | ||
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint. | ||
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative. | ||
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding.
CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower.
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x.
CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand.
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum.
CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint.
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%.
CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 91)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-47.7%)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $655,414 (0.036% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -47.7% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 71.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-15.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Value at 8.7, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Sentiment at 3.6, Technical at 3.8, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Attractive Multiples
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has fully closed.
- P2Revenue Earnings Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the beat pattern.
- P4Upside Exhaustion Target Reached
Trip ifStock price drops below $177, more than 7% below the current $190.83, triggering the defined stop-loss level.