Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
WLFC · Why this verdict
Why Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential. Key risks | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower. | ||
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand. | ||
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint. | ||
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative. | ||
With only 0.7% upside to the analyst price target at $192.10, the stock is priced near full value, leaving little margin of safety for new buyers and limiting near-term appreciation potential.
Tripped↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 10% over the next 12 months, reopening a meaningful upside gap to justify holding.
CounterA short interest of 12% of float means bearish pressure is elevated, and without a clear catalyst for analyst target upgrades, the stock could drift lower.
Willis Lease Finance trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10.6x with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.22, placing it among the more attractively priced names in its leasing peer group.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount to intrinsic value narrows over 12 months as earnings power is recognized, with the stock re-rating toward a forward multiple above 13x.
CounterLow multiples in leasing businesses often reflect the capital-intensity and leverage risk inherent to the model; a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0 amplifies any downturn in aviation demand.
The company has demonstrated 25% year-over-year revenue growth, well above the industry median, supported by strong demand for aircraft engine leasing.
Tripped→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% annually over the next 12 months, sustaining the company's top-line momentum.
CounterEarnings estimates have fallen 47.7% over the past 30 days, suggesting analysts believe this growth rate is not sustainable and earnings delivery may disappoint.
Willis Lease has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a standout 86% positive surprise in the most recent August quarter, reflecting management's ability to outperform consensus.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, maintaining the beat-rate above 75%.
CounterThe March 2026 quarter produced a significant miss of 50%, indicating earnings can swing sharply; one bad quarter can derail the beat streak narrative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 614% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 75 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+91.2%)
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.3 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $6,274,254 (0.541% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 2.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Estimates up 91.2% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.54%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.23
Upside
+9.3%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot, INSIDER:0.54%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, Peer rank at 4.2, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Attractive MultiplesTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has fully closed.
- P2Revenue Earnings Growth TrajectoryTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the beat pattern.
- P4Upside Exhaustion Target ReachedTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $177, more than 7% below the current $190.83, triggering the defined stop-loss level.