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GATX Corporation (GATX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $194.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5.

GATX is a global railcar lessor with approximately 156,000 railcars across Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing segments, plus a large aircraft spare engine lease portfolio via its GEL subsidiary and Rolls-Royce joint ventures. With 8.0 billion in total... Read more

$194.55+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 17 Rental & Leasing Services
Stop $186.70Target $201.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$215.75+10.9%4 analysts
$201.45our TP
$194.55price
$215.75mean
$221

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $194.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.2
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA19.8
Profit Mgn19.2%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth8.6%
Beta1.23
Dividend1.36%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerRolls-Royce
    10-K Item 1A: 'Rolls-Royce is therefore a major customer of the RRPF affiliates and of GEL, as well as a critical supplier of aircraft spare engines'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $166.54Resistance $205.56

Price Targets

$187
$201
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GATX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $194.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $186.70. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the GATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $201.45 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $186.70. Stop-loss: $186.70.

What are the risks of investing in GATX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is GATX overvalued or undervalued?

GATX Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GATX?

11 analysts cover GATX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $216.

What does GATX Corporation do?GATX is a global railcar lessor with approximately 156,000 railcars across Rail North America, Rail International, and...

GATX is a global railcar lessor with approximately 156,000 railcars across Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing segments, plus a large aircraft spare engine lease portfolio via its GEL subsidiary and Rolls-Royce joint ventures. With 8.0 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, it leases to transportation, chemical, petroleum, and food industries.

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