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GATX Corporation (GATX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. At $169.92, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Rolls-Royce.

GATX is a global railcar lessor owning ~156,000 railcars across North America, Europe, and India, plus aircraft spare engine leasing via GEL and 50%-owned Rolls-Royce joint ventures. Revenue comes from railcar leases (primarily full-service in North America and Europe) and... Read more

$169.92+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-82.64%
IncomeYield1.54%(5y avg 1.76%)Payout26.72%sustainable
Stop $162.92Target $185.30(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$218.00+28.3%4 analysts
$185.30our TP
$169.92price
$218.00mean
$222

Sell if holding. At $169.92, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Rolls-Royce. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — GATX Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Rolls-Royce
Thin upside margin: 9.1%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.4
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn17.9%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth38.4%
Beta1.25
Dividend1.54%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop GRE customer (17% of GRE lease revenue)17%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, one customer accounted for approximately 17% of GRE's total lease revenue and the top ten customers combined accounted for approximately 47% of GRE's total lease revenue.'
  • HIGHcounterpartyRolls-Royce
    10-K Item 1A: 'Rolls-Royce is therefore a major customer of the RRPF affiliates and of GEL, as well as a critical supplier of aircraft spare engines and commercial, technical, and maintenance services to GATX and the RRPF affiliates'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOW
    At GATX's April 24, 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of the 2012 Incentive Award Plan, adding 1,300,000 shares and updating certain limits. Routine compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $167.96Resistance $201.35

Price Targets

$163
$185
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GATX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $169.92, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Rolls-Royce. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $162.92. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the GATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $185.30 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $162.92. Stop-loss: $162.92.

What are the risks of investing in GATX?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Rolls-Royce; Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is GATX overvalued or undervalued?

GATX Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GATX?

11 analysts cover GATX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $218.

What does GATX Corporation do?GATX is a global railcar lessor owning ~156,000 railcars across North America, Europe, and India, plus aircraft spare...

GATX is a global railcar lessor owning ~156,000 railcars across North America, Europe, and India, plus aircraft spare engine leasing via GEL and 50%-owned Rolls-Royce joint ventures. Revenue comes from railcar leases (primarily full-service in North America and Europe) and engine leasing; as of December 31, 2025, total assets were $18.0B.

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