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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $128.32: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Herc Holdings is one of North America's largest equipment rental suppliers with 602 locations, offering aerial, earthmoving, material handling, specialty, and contractor tools on daily/weekly/monthly terms. No single customer made up more than 3% of equipment rental revenue in... Read more

$128.32+14.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#6 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.37%
IncomeYield2.09%Payout9333.33%at-risk
Stop $119.34Target $146.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$168.90+31.6%10 analysts
$146.94our TP
$128.32price
$168.90mean
$115
$206

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $128.32: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Herc Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn-0.1%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth32.3%
Beta1.91
Dividend2.09%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.82bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.5
Gross Margin
2.5
Operating Margin
3.8
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $106.57Resistance $143.89

Price Targets

$119
$147
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $128.32: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.82; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $119.34. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $146.94 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $119.34. Stop-loss: $119.34.

What are the risks of investing in HRI?

Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is HRI overvalued or undervalued?

Herc Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HRI?

13 analysts cover HRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $169.

What does Herc Holdings Inc. do?Herc Holdings is one of North America's largest equipment rental suppliers with 602 locations, offering aerial,...

Herc Holdings is one of North America's largest equipment rental suppliers with 602 locations, offering aerial, earthmoving, material handling, specialty, and contractor tools on daily/weekly/monthly terms. No single customer made up more than 3% of equipment rental revenue in 2025; national accounts represented 49% of equipment rental revenue. The 2025 acquisition of H&E Equipment Services added approximately 160 locations and significantly expanded the fleet.

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