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Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $127.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Herc Holdings is one of the largest equipment rental suppliers in North America with 602 locations across 46 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces. It rents construction, industrial, specialty, and contractor tools equipment to contractors, industrial customers, and other... Read more

$127.62+15.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 17 Rental & Leasing Services
Stop $118.71Target $146.94(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$168.90+32.3%10 analysts
$146.94our TP
$127.62price
$168.90mean
$115
$206

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $127.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn-0.1%
ROE-0.3%
Rev Growth32.3%
Beta1.82
Dividend2.13%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV62%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-30Item 5.02LOW
    John M. Engquist notified Board of intent not to stand for re-election as director at 2026 annual meeting. No disagreement with the Company on any matter cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
2.5
52w Position
3.6
Gap
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
2.5
Gross Margin
2.5
Operating Margin
3.8
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.45Resistance $140.85

Price Targets

$119
$147
A.Upside+15.1%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $127.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $118.71. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $146.94 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $118.71. Stop-loss: $118.71.

What are the risks of investing in HRI?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is HRI overvalued or undervalued?

Herc Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HRI?

13 analysts cover HRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $169.

What does Herc Holdings Inc. do?Herc Holdings is one of the largest equipment rental suppliers in North America with 602 locations across 46 U.S....

Herc Holdings is one of the largest equipment rental suppliers in North America with 602 locations across 46 U.S. states and 5 Canadian provinces. It rents construction, industrial, specialty, and contractor tools equipment to contractors, industrial customers, and other markets, with revenue diversified across customer types and geographies.

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