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WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporatioHold6.2·$54.33
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Willis Lease Finance offers attractive valuation and strong historical growth, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target with only 0.7% upside remaining, making the current entry point unfavorable from a risk-reward perspective.

Thesis pillars

  • Upside Exhaustion Target Reached↑Improving
  • Valuation Attractive Multiples→Stable
  • Revenue Earnings Growth Trajectory→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio (WLFC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%).

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and... Read more

$54.33+18.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 18 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield44.59%
IncomeYield1.01%Payout12.17%sustainable
Stop $50.75Target $64.17(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$75.50+39.0%2 analysts
$64.17our TP
$54.33price
$75.50mean
$80

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta0.72
Dividend1.01%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductLeasing and Related Operations segment95%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total revenues from our Leasing and Related Operations reportable segment was 94.9% and 95.4% of the respective total consolidated revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicleased and operated internationally65%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 64.8% of our on-lease engines, aircraft, and related equipment (all of which we sometimes refer to as "equipment") by net book value are leased and operated internationally'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5INSIDER 1.06%=EXTREMEA.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $52.13Resistance $60.00

Price Targets

$51
$64
A.Upside+18.1%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 1.06%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WLFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $54.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $64.17 (+18.1%), stop $50.75 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WLFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.17 (+18.1% upside). Target $64.17 (+18.1%), stop $50.75 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $50.75.

What are the risks of investing in WLFC?

Concentration risk — Product: Leasing and Related Operations segment (94.9%); Concentration risk — Geographic: leased and operated internationally (64.8%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is WLFC overvalued or undervalued?

Willis Lease Finance Corporatio trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WLFC?

7 analysts cover WLFC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Willis Lease Finance Corporatio do?Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial...

Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide. It operates in two segments, Leasing and Related Operations, and Spare Parts Sales. The company engages in acquiring and leasing commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and related aircraft equipment, as well as the purchase and resale of commercial aircraft engines and other aircraft equipment, and service and maintenance related businesses. It also purchases and resells after-market engine parts, whole engines, engine modules, and portable aircraft components. The company serves commercial aircraft operators, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul organizations. Willis Lease Finance Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Coconut Creek, Florida.

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