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WINAWinmark CorporationSell4.6·$424.31+1.00%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Winmark Corporation is a best-in-class specialty retailer with 48% operating margins, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and best-in-class peer quality rankings — but 3 consecutive earnings misses, a rich valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 33.3x, and revenue declining 5% year-over-year create a tension between exceptional quality and near-term execution concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Three Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Best In Class Operating MarginsStable
  • Rich Valuation Declining RevenueStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Winmark Corporation (WINA) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. At $424.31, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 9.2%.

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United... Read more

$424.31+9.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#21 of 24 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.19%
IncomeYield0.96%(5y avg 0.88%)Payout34.63%sustainable
Stop $394.59Target $463.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$545.00+28.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $424.31, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Winmark Corporation

Generated 2026-07-06T13:32:00Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 14, 20269d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 4.6/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.3
P/E (Fwd)35.1
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA28.9
Profit Mgn48.2%
ROE
Rev Growth-4.9%
Beta0.50
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    ​ (b) On May 5, 2026, Lawrence A. Barbetta, a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Winmark Corporation (the "Company") notified the Company that he will not stand for re-election at the Company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders to be held on or about April 21, 2027, in accordance with...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
3.0
Pe
3.2
Peg Ratio
3.2
Forward P/E: 35.1xPEG: 3.81Expensive valuation

Revenue shrinking — -4.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.3
Earnings Growth
3.8
Declining revenue: -5%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 9 daysDividend: 96.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.9
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
6.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Value Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
9.6
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $366.44Resistance $438.27

Price Targets

$395
$463
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WINA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $424.31, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 9.2%. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $394.59. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WINA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $463.25 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $394.59. Stop-loss: $394.59.

What are the risks of investing in WINA?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Is WINA overvalued or undervalued?

Winmark Corporation trades at a P/E of 38.3 (forward 35.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WINA?

7 analysts cover WINA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $545.

What does Winmark Corporation do?We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's...

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United States and Canada and over 2,800 available territories. Our mission is to provide Resale for Everyone®.

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Benzinga82d ago