Skip to main content
WINAWinmark CorporationSell5.2·$332.52-0.94%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Winmark Corporation is a best-in-class specialty retailer with 48% operating margins, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and best-in-class peer quality rankings — but 3 consecutive earnings misses, a rich valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 33.3x, and revenue declining 5% year-over-year create a tension between exceptional quality and near-term execution concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Three Consecutive Earnings MissesDeteriorating
  • Best In Class Operating MarginsStable
  • Rich Valuation Declining RevenueImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Winmark Corporation (WINA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation.

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United... Read more

$332.52+39.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#17 of 23 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.76%
IncomeYield1.23%(5y avg 0.88%)Payout35.42%sustainable
Stop $320.71Target $463.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.8:1
Analyst target$545.00+63.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 12, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 39%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.2
P/E (Fwd)27.5
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA22.5
Profit Mgn47.1%
ROE
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.50
Dividend1.23%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    ​ (b) On May 5, 2026, Lawrence A. Barbetta, a member of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Winmark Corporation (the "Company") notified the Company that he will not stand for re-election at the Company's Annual Meeting of Shareholders to be held on or about April 21, 2027, in accordance with...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.8
Peg Ratio
3.8
Pe
4.3
Forward Pe
4.5
Forward P/E: 27.5xPEG: 2.80

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
8.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend aristocrat: 1.2% yield
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
12 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $330.63Resistance $433.50

Price Targets

$321
$463
A.Upside+39.3%
A.R:R3.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WINA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $332.52 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 12, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $320.71. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WINA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $463.25 (+39.3% upside). Prior stop was $320.71. Stop-loss: $320.71.

What are the risks of investing in WINA?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is WINA overvalued or undervalued?

Winmark Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 27.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WINA?

7 analysts cover WINA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $545.

What does Winmark Corporation do?We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's...

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United States and Canada and over 2,800 available territories. Our mission is to provide Resale for Everyone®.

Related stocks: MNSO (MINISO Group Holding Limited) · BWMX (Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. ) · FIVE (Five Below, Inc.) · GME (GameStop Corporation) · EYE (National Vision Holdings, Inc.)
Home Stocks WINA

Latest news

Latest News

Kalkine Media11d ago
Grafa.com11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d ago
Quiver Quantitative11d agoEarnings
MarketBeat11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d agoEarnings
KING5.com11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d ago
Business Wire11d agoEarnings
TradingView11d agoEarnings
Kavout | AI15d agoEarnings
Benzinga11d agoEarnings
Benzinga102d ago