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Winmark Corporation (WINA) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $349.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Winmark Corporation, a resale company, operates as a franchisor in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the operation of Plato's Closet, which franchisees buy and sell gently used clothing and accessories for the teenage and young adult market; Once Upon A Child,... Read more

$349.60+32.5% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#18 of 18 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.64%
IncomeYield1.16%(5y avg 0.86%)Payout34.63%sustainable
Stop $328.03Target $463.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$545.00+55.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $349.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Winmark Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 33%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.7
P/E (Fwd)29.0
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA24.0
Profit Mgn48.2%
ROE
Rev Growth-4.9%
Beta0.53
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -4.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.3
Earnings Growth
3.8
Declining revenue: -5%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.1
Peg Ratio
3.6
Pe
4.1
Forward Pe
4.2
Forward P/E: 29.0xPEG: 3.19Expensive valuation

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend: 116.0%
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $338.18Resistance $421.50

Price Targets

$328
$463
A.Upside+32.5%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-14 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WINA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $349.60 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $328.03. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the WINA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $463.25 (+32.5% upside). Prior stop was $328.03. Stop-loss: $328.03.

What are the risks of investing in WINA?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is WINA overvalued or undervalued?

Winmark Corporation trades at a P/E of 31.7 (forward 29.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WINA?

7 analysts cover WINA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $545.

What does Winmark Corporation do?Winmark Corporation, a resale company, operates as a franchisor in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the...

Winmark Corporation, a resale company, operates as a franchisor in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the operation of Plato's Closet, which franchisees buy and sell gently used clothing and accessories for the teenage and young adult market; Once Upon A Child, which franchisees buy and sell gently used and, to a lesser extent, new children's clothing, toys, furniture, equipment, and accessories; and Style Encore, which franchisees buy and sell gently used women's and men's apparel, shoes, and accessories. The company also operates Play It Again Sports, which franchisees buy, sell and trade gently used and new sporting goods, equipment, and accessories for various athletic activities, including team sports, fitness, ski and snowboard, and golf; Music Go Round, which franchisees buy, sell, and trade gently used and, to a lesser extent, new musical instruments, speakers, amplifiers, music-related electronics, and related accessories. In addition, it engages in the operation of a middle-market equipment leasing business under the Winmark Capital brand; and provision of point-of-sale system hardware to its franchisees and certain merchandise to its Play It Again Sports franchisees. The company was formerly known as Grow Biz International, Inc. and changed its name to Winmark Corporation in November 2001. Winmark Corporation was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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