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WINAWinmark CorporationSell5.5·$299.22
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Winmark Corporation is a best-in-class specialty retailer with 48% operating margins, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and best-in-class peer quality rankings — but 3 consecutive earnings misses, a rich valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 33.3x, and revenue declining 5% year-over-year create a tension between exceptional quality and near-term execution concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
  • Best In Class Operating Margins→Stable
  • Rich Valuation Declining Revenue↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Winmark Corporation (WINA) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $299.22: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United... Read more

$299.22+54.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#14 of 22 Specialty Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.13%
IncomeYield1.40%(5y avg 0.90%)Payout35.42%sustainable
Stop $278.94Target $463.25(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 8.1:1
Analyst target$545.00+82.1%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $299.22: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Analyst upside: 55%
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.5
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn47.1%
ROE—
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.51
Dividend1.40%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.1
Ps
2.0
Peg Ratio
3.9
Pe
4.8
Forward Pe
5.2
Forward P/E: 24.2xPEG: 2.63

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
8.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MDividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 8.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $280.05Resistance $339.93

Price Targets

$279
$463
A.Upside+54.8%
A.R:R8.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WINA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $299.22: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $278.94. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WINA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $463.25 (+54.8% upside). Prior stop was $278.94. Stop-loss: $278.94.

What are the risks of investing in WINA?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Expensive valuation.

Is WINA overvalued or undervalued?

Winmark Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WINA?

7 analysts cover WINA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $545.

What does Winmark Corporation do?We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's...

We champion and guide entrepreneurs interested in operating one of our award winning resale franchises: Plato's Closet®, Once Upon A Child®, Play It Again Sports®, Style Encore® and Music Go Round®. At December 27, 2025, there were 1,378 franchises in operation in the United States and Canada and over 2,800 available territories. Our mission is to provide Resale for Everyone®.

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