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VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.Sell5.2·$15.48-1.53%
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Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.48: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.67; Below-average business quality.

Vitesse Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of non-operated oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company acquires and owns non-operated working interest and royalty interest ownership in the... Read more

$15.48+30.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#33 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.08%
IncomeYield12.92%Payout351.56%at-risk
Stop $14.96Target $20.19(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$23.75+53.4%4 analysts
$20.19our TP
$15.48price
$23.75mean
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.48: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$646M
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn-7.8%
ROE-3.2%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.60
Dividend12.92%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.67bearish
IV81%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.6
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.4
Value Rank
3.0
Growth Rank
3.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
2.2
Rule Of 40
3.0
Fcf Quality
5.1
Moat
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 8%, FCF yield 3.1%)Rule of 40: 10 (fail)
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.42Resistance $17.66

Price Targets

$15
$20
A.Upside+30.4%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.48: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.67; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.96. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.19 (+30.4% upside). Prior stop was $14.96. Stop-loss: $14.96.

What are the risks of investing in VTS?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is VTS overvalued or undervalued?

Vitesse Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VTS?

8 analysts cover VTS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Vitesse Energy, Inc. do?Vitesse Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of...

Vitesse Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of non-operated oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company acquires and owns non-operated working interest and royalty interest ownership in the Williston Basin properties covering 53,301 net acres located in North Dakota and Montana. It also owns non-operated interests in the Central Rockies properties located in Colorado and Wyoming. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

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