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Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. At $15.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil (62.0%).

Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in oil and gas properties across 28 states in the continental US, with ~12.3M gross acres of mineral interests and 4.7M gross acres of ORRIs, including ownership in 133,000+ gross wells. Cash distributions depend on... Read more

$15.30+4.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#22 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.81%
IncomeYield10.60%(5y avg 10.68%)Payout341.30%at-risk
Stop $14.54Target $15.94(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$18.75+22.5%4 analysts
$15.94our TP
$15.30price
$18.75mean
$23

Sell if holding. At $15.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil (62.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kimbell Royalty Partners

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil (62.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.2%
Near 52-week high (2.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.6
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn23.6%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth-6.7%
Beta0.28
Dividend10.60%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityoil62%
    10-K Item 1: 'our oil, natural gas and NGL revenues were generated 62% from oil sales, 25% from natural gas sales and 13% from NGL sales' in 2025
  • MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin and Mid-Continent54%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 54% of our aggregate acres located in the Permian Basin and Mid-Continent'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
5.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.70Resistance $15.40

Price Targets

$15
$16
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KRP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.30, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil (62.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.54. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KRP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.94 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $14.54. Stop-loss: $14.54.

What are the risks of investing in KRP?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Near 52-week high (2.2% away).

Is KRP overvalued or undervalued?

Kimbell Royalty Partners trades at a P/E of 33.6 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KRP?

11 analysts cover KRP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Kimbell Royalty Partners do?Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in oil and gas properties across 28 states in the...

Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in oil and gas properties across 28 states in the continental US, with ~12.3M gross acres of mineral interests and 4.7M gross acres of ORRIs, including ownership in 133,000+ gross wells. Cash distributions depend on oil/natural gas/NGL royalty payments from ~1,300 operators; the top 10 operators accounted for ~47.1% of revenues and oil represented 62% of revenues in 2025.

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