Kimbell Royalty Partners operates a high-quality royalty business with exceptional free cash flow conversion and strong margins, but revenue has declined 7% year-over-year, price momentum has failed to clear the required threshold, and a 62% concentration in oil sales leaves the partnership directly exposed to commodity-cycle swings — a combination that warrants caution despite the improving near-term earnings estimate trend.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Decline Growth Absent→Stable
- Oil Commodity Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Rising Earnings Estimates↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $14.71. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.48. Engine's entry $14.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%.
Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests in 4.7 million gross acres across 28 U.S. states and all major onshore basins. Revenue comes from royalty payments on oil, gas, and NGL production,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $14.71. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.48. Engine's entry $14.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Kimbell Royalty Partners
About Kimbell Royalty Partners
Kimbell Royalty Partners held proved reserves of 72,944 MBoe as of December 31, 2025—entirely classified as proved developed reserves with 51.2% liquids content and an average initial five-year decline rate of 13.5%. The partnership owned mineral and royalty interests across roughly 12.3 million gross acres in 28 states, with 54% of aggregate acreage in the Permian Basin and Mid-Continent. At year-end, 85 rigs representing 16.1% of all U.S. continental drilling were active on company acreage.
Kimbell Royalty earns revenue exclusively from royalty payments on oil, natural gas, and NGL production, bearing no obligation for drilling, completion, or operating costs. The 2025 revenue mix was 62% oil, 25% natural gas, and 13% NGLs, with approximately 1,300 operators actively producing on the acreage at year-end. The ten largest operators—including ConocoPhillips, Vital Energy, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum, and Diamondback E&P LLC—collectively accounted for 47.1% of revenues, while the single largest purchaser represented just 7.7%. The company's $625.0 million secured revolving credit facility supports potential acquisitions, and the board may allocate a portion of available cash to debt repayment rather than distributions in any given quarter. Royalties received depend on prices operators realize from selling oil, natural gas, and NGL production, exposing the royalty stream to commodity-price movements outside Kimbell's control.
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The absence of a hedging program described in the 10-K means Kimbell Royalty's distributions vary with spot commodity prices: the filing discloses that revenues 'may vary significantly from period to period as a result of changes in volumes of production sold or changes in commodity prices,' and the partnership agreement requires distribution of all available cash each quarter rather than retention for hedging or reserve-replacement capital. With proved developed reserves of 72,944 MBoe declining at 13.5% annually in the initial five-year window, production growth depends on the pace of third-party operator drilling—a variable the partnership cannot control.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Kimbell Royalty Partners's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Kimbell Royalty Partners
Latest news
- NEWS Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Set to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Di - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Record Results Might Change The Case For Investing In Kimbell Royalty Partners Stock (KRP) - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Record Results Might Change The Case For Investing In Kimbell Royalty Partners Stock (KRP) - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Ticks Up 0.19% to $15.78, Centered Between Support and Resistance - BPI Bull Correction - — https://www.siam.in/ Oct 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Lifted Its Distribution, Is The Upside Still Cheap? - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 14, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten operators47%10-K Item 1: 'our top ten operators...together accounting for approximately 47.1% of our revenues'
- HIGHCommodityoil sales62%10-K Item 1: 'oil, natural gas and NGL revenues were generated 62% from oil sales, 25% from natural gas sales and 13% from NGL sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $14.71. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.48. Engine's entry $14.71 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $16.70 (+7.9%), stop $14.01 (−10.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.70 (+7.9% upside). Target $16.70 (+7.9%), stop $14.01 (−10.5%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $14.01.
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil sales (62.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%.
Kimbell Royalty Partners trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
11 analysts rate KRP, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $19.
What does Kimbell Royalty Partners do?Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty...
Kimbell Royalty Partners owns mineral and royalty interests in roughly 12.3 million gross acres and overriding royalty interests in 4.7 million gross acres across 28 U.S. states and all major onshore basins. Revenue comes from royalty payments on oil, gas, and NGL production, with the 2025 mix at 62% oil, 25% natural gas, and 13% NGLs; the non-cost-bearing structure requires no drilling or operating investment.