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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%).

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes... Read more

$30.17+0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#16 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.85%
IncomeYield2.11%Payout35.55%sustainable
Stop $28.33Target $30.39(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$33.76+11.9%17 analysts
$30.39our TP
$30.17price
$33.76mean
$28
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.8Qual7.0Grw6.5Mom7.1Sent6.7Ins3.4Peer3.0Tech4.4Risk6.26.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas
Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$5.7B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta0.75
Dividend2.11%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicSouth Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of Magnolia's producing properties are geographically concentrated in South Texas'
  • HIGHCustomertwo largest purchasers61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, there were two purchasers who accounted for an aggregate 61% of the total revenue attributable to Magnolia's assets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
3.2
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.97Resistance $31.07

Price Targets

$28
$30
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.17, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 51, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.39 (+0.7%), stop $28.33 (−6.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.39 (+0.7% upside). Target $30.39 (+0.7%), stop $28.33 (−6.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $28.33.

What are the risks of investing in MGY?

Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Concentration risk — Customer: two largest purchasers (61.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MGY overvalued or undervalued?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MGY?

25 analysts cover MGY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation do?Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development,...

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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