Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $26.93. At $29.96 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $26.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: two purchasers (61.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes... Read more
Wait for pullback to $26.93. At $29.96 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $26.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: two purchasers (61.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertwo purchasers61%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, there were two purchasers who accounted for an aggregate 61% of the total revenue attributable to Magnolia's assets.'
- HIGHGeographicSouth Texas10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of Magnolia's producing properties are geographically concentrated in South Texas.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $26.93. At $29.96 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $26.93 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: two purchasers (61.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $30.50 (+1.8%), stop $25.28 (−18.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $30.50 (+13.6% upside). Target $30.50 (+1.8%), stop $25.28 (−18.5%), Setup A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $25.28.
Concentration risk — Customer: two purchasers (61.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: South Texas; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
26 analysts cover MGY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $34.
What does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation do?Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development,...
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States. The company's properties are located primarily in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas comprising the Eagle Ford Shale and the Austin Chalk formation. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.