Value
5.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.1 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 76.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.73
VTS · Why this verdict
Why Vitesse Energy (VTS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vitesse Energy is a Williston Basin oil and gas producer that is free-cash-flow positive and growing revenue, but its price is at the $18.27 analyst target, EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters and 96% of reserves sit in one basin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
96.0% of proved reserves are in North Dakota and Montana, and 79.0% of net acres sit in four counties, so one basin's economics drive results. Bear case | Geographic concentration stays flat or diversifies, with no single-basin reserve share rising above 96%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentrated acreage in a proven basin lowers operating costs and lets the company focus capital on its best wells. | ||
The data flags a yield-trap warning with a dividend safety score of 3.0/10, so the payout may be at risk if earnings stay weak. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety improves above 5.0 as free cash flow covers the payout over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company generates positive free cash flow, and the payout is variable in nature for an energy producer, which limits the risk of a damaging cut. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$0.01 against a $0.12 estimate in the quarter reported 2026-05-04, with the next report due in 1 day. Last 4 quarters | EPS returns to meeting or beating estimates in the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter beat at $0.04 against a -$0.01 estimate, and commodity-price swings can drive misses that reverse the next quarter. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a free cash flow margin of 10% and a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin stays above 8% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Rule of 40 reading of 19 fails, and the low free cash flow yield leaves little cushion if oil prices fall. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $91.0M for the period ended 2026-06-30 is up from $67.4M the prior quarter and $81.8M a year earlier. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue stays above $75M, in line with the $77.6M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterE&P revenue follows commodity prices, so the jump may reflect a temporary price spike rather than lasting production growth. | ||
96.0% of proved reserves are in North Dakota and Montana, and 79.0% of net acres sit in four counties, so one basin's economics drive results.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Geographic concentration stays flat or diversifies, with no single-basin reserve share rising above 96%.
CounterConcentrated acreage in a proven basin lowers operating costs and lets the company focus capital on its best wells.
The data flags a yield-trap warning with a dividend safety score of 3.0/10, so the payout may be at risk if earnings stay weak.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety improves above 5.0 as free cash flow covers the payout over 12 months.
CounterThe company generates positive free cash flow, and the payout is variable in nature for an energy producer, which limits the risk of a damaging cut.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$0.01 against a $0.12 estimate in the quarter reported 2026-05-04, with the next report due in 1 day.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS returns to meeting or beating estimates in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter beat at $0.04 against a -$0.01 estimate, and commodity-price swings can drive misses that reverse the next quarter.
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a free cash flow margin of 10% and a free cash flow yield of 3.3%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin stays above 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterA Rule of 40 reading of 19 fails, and the low free cash flow yield leaves little cushion if oil prices fall.
Quarterly revenue of $91.0M for the period ended 2026-06-30 is up from $67.4M the prior quarter and $81.8M a year earlier.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $75M, in line with the $77.6M next-quarter estimate.
CounterE&P revenue follows commodity prices, so the jump may reflect a temporary price spike rather than lasting production growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 3.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 19 (fail)
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.15
Upside
+6.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.2, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.15 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Williston Basin Concentration
Trip ifWilliston Basin share of proved reserves falls below 85% from the current 96.0%.
- P2Recent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Free Cash Flow Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 3% from the current 10%.
- P4Revenue Rebound
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $70M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Unsafe Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 6.0 from the current 3.0.