ViaSat is a satellite communication equipment company with 35% analyst upside to a target of $77.32, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and strong earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters, but the business fails the quality threshold with a score of 3.0, generating near-zero net margins and no competitive moat, making it a speculative recovery thesis rather than a quality investment.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Upside With Quality Gap→Stable
- Piotroski Score Structural Health→Stable
- Earnings Beat Volatile Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ViaSat, Inc. (VSAT) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Communication Equipment
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.06: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality.
Viasat provides satellite-based broadband and narrowband communications through two segments—communication services (aviation IFC on ~4,580 commercial aircraft, maritime on ~13,200 vessels, U.S. fixed broadband, and government satcom) and defense and advanced technologies... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.06: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About ViaSat, Inc.
About ViaSat, Inc.
Viasat's communication services and defense and advanced technologies segments together serve aviation, maritime, government, consumer, and enterprise customers through a fleet of 23 in-service or operational satellites spanning Ka-, L- and S-bands as of March 31, 2026. The defense segment's new awards reached $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2026, up from approximately $0.6 billion in fiscal 2018. The communication services segment served approximately 4,580 commercial aircraft with in-flight connectivity and roughly 13,200 vessels with Ka-band maritime services, while U.S. fixed broadband had approximately 130,000 subscribers at an average monthly revenue per user of $113.
Viasat generates recurring subscription and service revenue from aviation IFC agreements, maritime broadband subscriptions, and fixed broadband. The defense and advanced technologies segment earns from U.S. Government contracts for encryption systems (including HAIPE-compliant Type 1 solutions capable of operating at speeds up to 200 Gbps), cybersecurity products, the MOJO expeditionary tactical gateway product family, and small satellite development. U.S. Government revenues represent a significant percentage of total revenues, making the defense business sensitive to congressional appropriations cycles and program-level funding decisions—the 10-K notes that substantially all U.S. Government backlog can be terminated at the government's convenience with limited or no penalties. In commercial aviation, Viasat faces growing competition from Starlink LEO services and increasingly capable cellular and Wi-Fi alternatives. The 2023 Inmarsat acquisition added eight L-band satellites and the GX satellite series, expanding maritime and aviation capacity.
Show full overview
U.S. Government contract concentration is the defining risk concentration across both segments. Defense new awards grew from $0.6 billion in fiscal 2018 to $1.6 billion in fiscal 2026, yet the 10-K states that programs depend on annual congressional appropriations, that agencies may operate under continuing resolutions that limit new spending initiatives, and that budget cuts could reduce funds available for resilient communications, tactical networking, and small satellite programs. Contract terminations-for-convenience—permitted under substantially all U.S. Government backlog—could reduce delivered revenue without proportionate penalties to the government.
See also: Technology · Communication Equipment
From ViaSat, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — ViaSat, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Iridium Communications, FuelCell Energy, Rocket Lab And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Monday — benzinga Jun 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Magnite Teams With Viasat To Bring Programmatic Ads To Air Travelers — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Magnite Partners With Viasat Aviation To Bring Programmatic Advertising To In-Flight Wi-Fi And Entertainment Screens Acr — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Viasat Collaborates With TiVo To Integrate TiVo Operating System As Connected TV Platform Throughout Viasat-Delivered Se — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS Viasat Stock In Focus A Day After 18% Surge On U.S. Space Force Contract Win — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:35Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Government10-K Item 1A: 'Revenues derived from the U.S. Government represent a significant percentage of our total revenues.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWBoard appointed Shekar Ayyar and Jinhy Yoon as independent directors effective May 6, 2026; board now 10 members, 8 independent. No departures. Routine board expansion.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 1.01LOWCooperation Agreement entered into in connection with board expansion (Ayyar and Yoon appointments). Agreement details incorporated by reference from Item 5.02. Nature of obligations not further described in provided body.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.06: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.65; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $77.25. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $91.17 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $77.25. Stop-loss: $77.25.
Target reached (-1.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
ViaSat, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 205.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover VSAT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $95.
What does ViaSat, Inc. do?Viasat provides satellite-based broadband and narrowband communications through two segments—communication services...
Viasat provides satellite-based broadband and narrowband communications through two segments—communication services (aviation IFC on ~4,580 commercial aircraft, maritime on ~13,200 vessels, U.S. fixed broadband, and government satcom) and defense and advanced technologies (encryption, cybersecurity, and tactical gateways). Revenue derives from service subscriptions, hardware sales, and U.S. Government contracts; defense new awards reached $1.6 billion in fiscal 2026 across a 23-satellite fleet spanning Ka-, L- and S-bands.