Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 177.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.66
VSAT · Why this verdict
Why ViaSat (VSAT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ViaSat is a satellite communication equipment company with 35% analyst upside to a target of $77.32, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and strong earnings beats in 3 of 4 quarters, but the business fails the quality threshold with a score of 3.0, generating near-zero net margins and no competitive moat, making it a speculative recovery thesis rather than a quality investment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts assign a 35% upside target to $77.32 from the current $65.87, with an LLM news sentiment score of +0.64 based on 5 news articles, but the business quality score of 3.0 — below the 4.0 minimum threshold — reflects near-zero net margins and no established competitive moat. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst price targets should be maintained or raised above $75 over the next 12 months as the company demonstrates improving margins, reducing the quality gap that currently prevents this from being a buy recommendation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh analyst targets on low-quality businesses frequently reflect speculative upside scenarios rather than base-case outcomes, and the 17.4% current upside to analyst target suggests the expected value is already partially embedded in the price. | ||
Despite the low overall quality score, ViaSat achieves a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — measuring financial health across 9 accounting-based dimensions — indicating the balance sheet and fundamental business mechanics are sound even if profitability metrics are weak. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that the structural financial health is maintained even as profitability improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score combined with near-zero net margins and no free cash flow suggests the business is operationally functional but not yet profitable enough to reward equity investors, and the score cannot prevent continued stock underperformance. | ||
Despite the most recent quarter missing badly at -106% surprise (Q1 2026), the 3 preceding quarters averaged massive beats of 228%, 250%, and 1,800% respectively, reflecting a business where earnings are highly volatile and can swing dramatically in either direction. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarters should show positive earnings surprises above 0%, returning to the beat pattern that characterized the 12 months prior to the most recent miss. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent miss of -106% in May 2026 reporting actual EPS of -$0.02 versus expected $0.32 suggests the business has deteriorated materially rather than simply missing a quarterly estimate, and the prior beats may not be indicative of the current trajectory. | ||
The put/call ratio of 2.17 indicates bearish options positioning, with implied volatility at 129%, reflecting significant market uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory following the most recent earnings miss. Key risks | The put/call ratio should decline below 1.5 within 6 months as the earnings recovery restores investor confidence and reduces demand for put protection. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 2.17 combined with 129% implied volatility in a company that just missed by -106% is a rational bearish signal, not a contrarian opportunity; options markets may be correctly pricing a higher probability of continued earnings misses. | ||
Analysts assign a 35% upside target to $77.32 from the current $65.87, with an LLM news sentiment score of +0.64 based on 5 news articles, but the business quality score of 3.0 — below the 4.0 minimum threshold — reflects near-zero net margins and no established competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be maintained or raised above $75 over the next 12 months as the company demonstrates improving margins, reducing the quality gap that currently prevents this from being a buy recommendation.
CounterHigh analyst targets on low-quality businesses frequently reflect speculative upside scenarios rather than base-case outcomes, and the 17.4% current upside to analyst target suggests the expected value is already partially embedded in the price.
Despite the low overall quality score, ViaSat achieves a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — measuring financial health across 9 accounting-based dimensions — indicating the balance sheet and fundamental business mechanics are sound even if profitability metrics are weak.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months, confirming that the structural financial health is maintained even as profitability improves.
CounterA high Piotroski score combined with near-zero net margins and no free cash flow suggests the business is operationally functional but not yet profitable enough to reward equity investors, and the score cannot prevent continued stock underperformance.
Despite the most recent quarter missing badly at -106% surprise (Q1 2026), the 3 preceding quarters averaged massive beats of 228%, 250%, and 1,800% respectively, reflecting a business where earnings are highly volatile and can swing dramatically in either direction.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarters should show positive earnings surprises above 0%, returning to the beat pattern that characterized the 12 months prior to the most recent miss.
CounterThe most recent miss of -106% in May 2026 reporting actual EPS of -$0.02 versus expected $0.32 suggests the business has deteriorated materially rather than simply missing a quarterly estimate, and the prior beats may not be indicative of the current trajectory.
The put/call ratio of 2.17 indicates bearish options positioning, with implied volatility at 129%, reflecting significant market uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory following the most recent earnings miss.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should decline below 1.5 within 6 months as the earnings recovery restores investor confidence and reduces demand for put protection.
CounterA put/call ratio of 2.17 combined with 129% implied volatility in a company that just missed by -106% is a rational bearish signal, not a contrarian opportunity; options markets may be correctly pricing a higher probability of continued earnings misses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 6.1 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $31,074,912 (0.317% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (3)
- INSIDER:0.32%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.98
Upside
+14.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.70>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Catalyst at 6.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.98.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.7, Growth at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Upside With Quality Gap
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $60, more than 9% below the current price of $65.87.
- P2Piotroski Score Structural Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6, indicating deterioration in at least 3 of the 9 financial health dimensions.
- P3Earnings Beat Volatile Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Options
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 and remains above 3.0 for more than 30 consecutive days.