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Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. At $12.60, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of... Read more

$12.60+8.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 21 Communication Equipment
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-6.13%
Stop $11.44Target $13.30(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$15.29+21.3%7 analysts
$13.30our TP
$12.60price
$15.29mean
$8
$20

Sell if holding. At $12.60, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Harmonic Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.1%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)153.8
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA32.8
Profit Mgn-10.6%
ROE2.1%
Rev Growth43.4%
Beta1.24
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$5-60.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.9
Value Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
8.4
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.12Resistance $15.39

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $12.60, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $11.44. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLIT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.30 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $11.44. Stop-loss: $11.44.

What are the risks of investing in HLIT?

Thin upside margin: 8.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is HLIT overvalued or undervalued?

Harmonic Inc. trades at a P/E of 153.8 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLIT?

13 analysts cover HLIT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Harmonic Inc. do?Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides...

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and SeaStar DAA nodes; Reef and Wave PHY shelf products; pebble remote PHY Devices; and fin, pearl and pier OLT modules and devices; and cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators; and cOS central cloud services, a subscription service for cOS customers. It also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, integration services, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training, as well as SaaS-related support and deployment. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. It also serves cable and telco operators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

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