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Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Sell if holding. At $10.46, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of... Read more

$10.46+5.9% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#16 of 21 Communication Equipment
Stop $9.82Target $11.06(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$12.71+21.6%7 analysts
$11.06our TP
$10.46price
$12.71mean
$8
$17

Sell if holding. At $10.46, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.0%
Weak overall score: 4.7/10
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-55.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.8%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)1032.0
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA40.8
Profit Mgn-12.0%
ROE0.3%
Rev Growth-55.8%
Beta1.10
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV99%elevated
Max Pain$5-52.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.83Resistance $10.94

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.46, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Weak overall score: 4.7/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $9.82. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLIT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.06 (+5.9% upside). Prior stop was $9.82. Stop-loss: $9.82.

What are the risks of investing in HLIT?

Thin upside margin: 6.0%; Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-55.8% YoY), Margin compression (op margin 3.8%).

Is HLIT overvalued or undervalued?

Harmonic Inc. trades at a P/E of 1032.0 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLIT?

13 analysts cover HLIT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Harmonic Inc. do?Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides...

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and SeaStar DAA nodes; Reef and Wave PHY shelf products; pebble remote PHY Devices; and fin, pearl and pier OLT modules and devices; and cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators; and cOS central cloud services, a subscription service for cOS customers. It also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, integration services, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training, as well as SaaS-related support and deployment. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. It also serves cable and telco operators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

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