Harmonic is an industry growth leader with roughly 43% year-over-year revenue expansion and a majority of earnings quarters delivering strong beats, but free cash flow is negative — consuming approximately 21% of revenue — and below-average business quality mean the 15% upside to resistance is a setup that depends heavily on growth execution to compensate for the absent cash-generation track record.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Drag→Stable
- Earnings Beat Pattern With Exception→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Communication Equipment
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%).
Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco operators to deliver high-speed data, voice and video services, deriving approximately 89% of 2025 revenue from the Americas. The company's top 10 customers... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Harmonic Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Harmonic: Great Quarter, Not So Great Growth Outlook Or Cash Flow (Downgrade) (HLIT) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Does Earnings Beat Change The Bull Case For Harmonic (HLIT)? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Surges 17% Pre-Market Ahead of Midterm Elections - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Robinhood CEO's AI startup Harmonic expands into software, chip design verification - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Shares Fall 4.6% -- What GF Score of 80 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 13, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAmericas89%10-K Item 1: 'We derived approximately 89% of our revenue from the Americas in 2025.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers84%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our 10 largest customers in 2025, 2024 and 2023 accounted for approximately 84%, 91% and 90% of our net revenue, respectively.'
- HIGHCustomersingle largest customer54%10-K Item 1: 'During the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, one customer accounted for 54% of our net revenue.'
- MEDIUMSupplierPlexus Services Corp.10-K Item 1: 'Plexus accounts for the majority of the products we purchase from our contract manufacturers.'
- HIGHSuppliersole-source and limited-group component suppliers10-K Item 1: 'Many components, subassemblies and modules necessary for the manufacture or integration of our products are obtained from a sole supplier or a limited group of suppliers.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-16Item 2.01MEDIUMHarmonic completed the previously disclosed sale of its Video Business to Leone Media Inc. (MediaKind) for $145 million in cash, agreeing not to compete with the business for three years.SEC filing →
- 2026-06-16Item 5.02LOWNeven Haltmayer resigned as Senior Vice President and General Manager, Video Business, effective with the closing of the Video business sale; no successor named as the role is eliminated with the divested unit.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $13.30 (+30.5%), stop $9.48 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $13.30 (+30.5% upside). Analyst target $13.30 (+30.5%), stop $9.48 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $9.48.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (89.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (84.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Harmonic Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts rate HLIT, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.
What does Harmonic Inc. do?Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco...
Harmonic Inc. is a global provider of software-based broadband access solutions (cOS) that enable cable and telco operators to deliver high-speed data, voice and video services, deriving approximately 89% of 2025 revenue from the Americas. The company's top 10 customers accounted for approximately 84% of net revenue in 2025, with a single customer alone representing 54%. On June 16, 2026, Harmonic completed the $145 million sale of its Video business to MediaKind, narrowing its focus to the Broadband segment going forward.