Vista Energy offers compelling value at a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x and 97% year-over-year revenue growth, with elite profitability metrics including a 35% return on equity and a Rule of 40 score of 69, but three of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates and elevated options positioning signals near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Elite Revenue Growth Rate→Stable
- High Return Attractive Valuation→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, contrarian override rsi=14,above 200ma,quality=7.4,upside=58%). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
Latest news
- NEWS Ruffer LLP Acquires Shares of 394,510 Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR $VIST - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Vista Energy (VIST) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS PING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC.'s Vista Energy SAB de CV(VIST) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Wall Street Analysts See a 29.14% Upside in Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR (VIST): Can the Stock Really Mo — Zacks Investment Research positive
- NEWS Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR (VIST) Just Overtook the 50-Day Moving Average - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-07-07T13:32:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $61.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $58.03. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $83.93 (+37.1% upside). Prior stop was $58.03. Stop-loss: $58.03.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 8.8 (forward 5.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover VIST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $96.
What does Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. do?Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in...
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.