Value
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
VIST · Why this verdict
Why Vista Energy (VIST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Year-over-year revenue growth of 97% and a Rule of 40 score of 69 place Vista Energy among the top growth performers in its peer group, reflecting rapid production expansion in the energy sector. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate stays above 40% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth this fast often reflects base effects or commodity price tailwinds rather than durable volume gains; a decline in oil prices could deflate headline growth rapidly. | ||
A return on equity of 35%, strong operating margins of 26%, and a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x combine to suggest the business generates excellent returns on capital available at a meaningful discount to fair value. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% and forward price-to-earnings remains below 12x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow at minus 110% of net income means reported earnings are not translating into cash, raising questions about the sustainability of reported profitability. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters produced earnings below analyst estimates, with an average negative surprise of 24%, indicating a persistent gap between guidance and actual delivery that undermines confidence in forward projections. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling guidance discipline has improved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single beat in October 2025 showed a 30% positive surprise, suggesting the company can deliver; the misses may reflect analyst over-optimism rather than operational failure. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 6.29 — among the highest observable — signals that options market participants are hedging heavily against downside, and the stock trades above its maximum pain level of $55, creating additional technical headwinds. Options | Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within the next 6 months, indicating reduced fear among options participants. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios historically function as contrarian indicators, and heavy hedging often precedes sharp upside reversals when sentiment normalizes. | ||
Year-over-year revenue growth of 97% and a Rule of 40 score of 69 place Vista Energy among the top growth performers in its peer group, reflecting rapid production expansion in the energy sector.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate stays above 40% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterRevenue growth this fast often reflects base effects or commodity price tailwinds rather than durable volume gains; a decline in oil prices could deflate headline growth rapidly.
A return on equity of 35%, strong operating margins of 26%, and a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x combine to suggest the business generates excellent returns on capital available at a meaningful discount to fair value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% and forward price-to-earnings remains below 12x over the next 12 months.
CounterNegative free cash flow at minus 110% of net income means reported earnings are not translating into cash, raising questions about the sustainability of reported profitability.
Three of the last four reported quarters produced earnings below analyst estimates, with an average negative surprise of 24%, indicating a persistent gap between guidance and actual delivery that undermines confidence in forward projections.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling guidance discipline has improved.
CounterThe single beat in October 2025 showed a 30% positive surprise, suggesting the company can deliver; the misses may reflect analyst over-optimism rather than operational failure.
A put-to-call ratio of 6.29 — among the highest observable — signals that options market participants are hedging heavily against downside, and the stock trades above its maximum pain level of $55, creating additional technical headwinds.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within the next 6 months, indicating reduced fear among options participants.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios historically function as contrarian indicators, and heavy hedging often precedes sharp upside reversals when sentiment normalizes.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vista Energy offers compelling value at a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x and 97% year-over-year revenue growth, with elite profitability metrics including a 35% return on equity and a Rule of 40 score of 69, but three of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates and elevated options positioning signals near-term risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -110% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 97% YoY
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 9.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 14)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 9.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- CONTRARIAN_OVERRIDE:RSI=14,above_200MA,quality=7.4,upside=58%
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
Warning (2)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
- MOMENTUM_OVERRIDDEN:RSI 14 extreme oversold + fundamentals intact
Reward-to-Risk
4.26
Upside
+37.2%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.3; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Growth at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Momentum at 2.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Revenue Growth Rate
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 20% year-over-year in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2High Return Attractive Valuation
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak Risk
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining or worsening the miss streak.
- P4Elevated Options Put Signal
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 8.0, indicating further acceleration of defensive options positioning.