Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
VIST · Why this verdict
Why Vista Energy (VIST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -110% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 97% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 1.5 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.77
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.73
Upside
+25.1%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 9.1; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Technical at 8.2, and Growth at 7.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.